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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: surfbaron who wrote (51119)5/8/2002 4:50:12 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 65232
 
finally a clear question... separation of miners coming
first, "ass" is not the same as "jackass"
I wear the jackass label with pride
but an ass in this country is a wide double-orb eye insult

ok, if Barrick is damaged, yes Barrick stock will suffer
but not the unhedged bunch
the hedged miners will be in utter desperation, with corrosive derivative books, money flying out the window in losses, in pursuit of shrinking supplies of physical gold

the unhedged miners will be in ecstasy, with no derivative books, money flying into their coffers, while being pursued by Barrick et al, whose pockets contain nuclear waste

imagine a cartoon with the roadrunner being pursued by the fox, only the fox eventually withers into nothingness

since Nov01, notice the sharp difference in stock performance between XAU and HUI
XAU is the oldline standard precious metals miner index
(it is 35% weighted by Barrick alone)
HUI is the GOLDBUGS index
GOLD Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks (no Barrick et al)
I believe the HUI is outperforming XAU by double recently

as the nuclear waste on hedged derivative books becomes more clear, and its devastation is clearly identified, and word gets out about extent of hedging, then I expect the XAU to go down as the HUI skyrockets

hedged precmetal miner stocks will go below their levels in 2000 perhaps
unhedged precmetal miner stocks will go into orbit
e.g. up 300-500%
a sharp clear division will become apparent
that is why XAU is the fool's index in the gold game

not all Gold Funds are the same
some mindless Funds are using XAU without use of brain
others like Tocqueville use zero hedged stocks, using brain
the sharp division will make one of many juicy upcoming stories when the scandal breaks
the story will amplify the Federal Reserve role, and the Bullion Banker role, who have used Gold Miners as tools to hedge, thus providing a facade of legitimacy

gonna be fun to watch

/ jim