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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3085)	5/8/2002 7:43:16 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

Just to post a reference document here from the "tech side" of Briefing.com' <<Updated: 09-May-02 General Commentary Wednesday's session was like a blast from the past, as techs surged in response to good earnings news from Cisco Systems (CSCO)... The Nasdaq rallied 122 points, or 7.8% - its biggest percentage gain since April of 2001... But it felt more like 1999, as double-digit gains were the rule rather than the exception: Cisco +24%, Extreme Networks +30%, BEA Systems +29%, Mercury Interactive +22%, PMC-Sierra +23%, PeopleSoft +19%, Applied Materials +14%, Broadcom +14%, Veritas +16%, Siebel +16%, Dell +15%, Oracle +11%, Qualcomm +19%, Juniper +14%, Tellabs +14%, Texas Instruments +11%, Flextronics +15%, Sanmina-SCI +16%, Yahoo! +11%, Brocade +25%, Emulex +28% and QLogic (which provide a positive earnings surprise of its own) +27%. Was the advance an overreaction to Cisco's earnings? Yes. Was the move largely due to short-covering? Yes. Did deeply oversold technicals and major supports in the SOX and the BTK (biotech index) contribute to the rebound? Yes. Were the gains a welcome relief from the day-to-day drudgery of the past couple months? YES, YES, YES... Are the gains sustainable? Ahh, that's is the big question and the one that isn't so easy to answer. Follow-through buying has been missing from most of the rally attempts over the past few months... Consequently, gains fizzle out almost as quickly as they develop, with the end result being increased pessimism... Failure to build on this gain over the next couple of days/weeks, would certainly be a blow to what few bulls remain... However, the widespread nature of yesterday's advance, the spike in volume and the fact that the indices closed at their highs suggests that the rebound might actually have some legs. As we noted on this page yesterday, it's going to take more than one good day - even if it was a sensational one - to turn the sector/market around... Wednesday's gain will only be an impressive start if buyers continue to step to the plate... We know it's possible - as many tech stocks more than doubled after initially selling off in reaction to 9/11... As such, we will be monitoring market closely for signs of real buying (not just short-covering) in the days ahead. Robert Walberg, Briefing.com>>

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3085)	5/9/2002 5:27:45 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

So much for the SOX rising but Briefing.com raised the group to slightly outperform today. The SOX paid no attention at all. All component members were down today. AMAT almost stayed in the green but MU which is rumored to have been canceling an order of equipment was the biggest loser as investors fear DRAM prices will erode further. See IFX note below. Sox Component Members/One day delay on charts but not prices: finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+TER+TXN+XLNX&d=c&k=c3&t=3m&a=r14&p=b%2Cv&l=on&z=m&q=c More from Briefing.com: 3:08PM Semiconductor Sector : The semiconductor sector has been volatile over the past three months. During that time frame, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index or SOX has managed to carve out both gains, and losses, in excess of 25%. The most recent move was to the downside, with the index sliding from a March 8 closing high of 638 to its May 7 low of 470. So this is where the index has been, the question at this point is where it's headed. Despite the recent sell pressure, the fundamental backdrop appears to be improving. With the exception of the communication IC businesses, most other semiconductor companies experienced an increase in bookings in the first quarter which held up through April. At the same time, the PC and wireless device makers continue to express caution regarding the near-term outlook. This begs the question of whether the current semiconductor recovery represents anything more than an inventory replenishment. Most believe that in the absence of true end-market demand, business trends will roll over with valuations to follow. Yet with manufacturing capacity tightening, and the U.S. economy poised for recovery (granted, the strength of which is uncertain), multiple chipmakers have increased capital spending plans. Also, while the sector as a whole lacks a killer app going forward, it is probably within 12 months of PC, wireless, and perhaps wireline replacement cycles. This leaves the issue one of assessing relative valuation versus the more promising outlook for recovery. After weighing both sides of the equation with an emphasis on the longer-term outlook, we are raising our rating on the group to Slightly Outperform. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com 3:52PM NVIDIA (NVDA) 34.67 -1.33: One of analysts' favorite names in the semi space, NVDA stock has advanced more than 10% since May 1st after a two-month 50% price slide. Morgan Stanley sees further strength in shares following MSFT's announcement yesterday that Xbox sales in Europe have responded positively to recent price reductions; firm also anticipates upside from the Legend Computer of China and NVDA joint announcement about the adoption of NVDA's latest mobile GPU, Geforce4 Go, in Legend's latest notebook. Morgan believes NVDA has the potential to be the best performing stock in their universe over the next 12-18 months and rates valuation as inexpensive with the potential for further earnings upside high. 1:59PM TriQuint Semi (TQNT) 10.11 -0.13: Pacific Crest's outlook for TQNT is bright: after the co. matched consensus Q1 ests and reaffirmed Q2 guidance (breakeven to loss of $0.02 and $60-63 mln revenues) on 4/18, firm sees an additional growth vehicle in color handsets and views the prospects for a reasonably good summer and H2 positively. Pac Crest's checks with retailers of domestic handsets indicate that color handsets may be as big a driver of replacement rates as many had anticipated that new networks would be; firm also believes the likes of PCS, VZ, and AWE are likely to be fairly aggressive in their pricing and promotion of their new network capabilities. 11:29AM Micron Tech (MU) 23.36 -1.15: There were rumors out of the Salomon Smith Barney semi conference that MU may be cancelling about $300 mln in equipment orders, but Salomon just commented that it has not heard of a cancellation from MU, and would be very surprised if this rumor was true. 7:57AM Infineon downgraded at UBS (IFX) 18.50: UBS Warburg out of Europe downgrades to HOLD from Buy due to lowered 2002-03 DRAM price forecasts and the expectation that the co will continue to post losses in 2003-04. 2:20PM Intersil lower on trading floor rumor : Intersil comes under pressure in reaction to unconfirmed rumor circulating trading floors that a ISIL competitor is gaining traction at Cisco. 1:57PM Intersil -- volume alert (ISIL) 25.46 -1.03: Stock breaks to lows of day amid a surge in volume. 1:14PM SSB Semi Conf (Day 1) : TXN's still tracking to guidance with 20% q/q order growth, supporting double-digit (+10%) rev. growth for Q2. VTSS indicated that the book-to-bill ratio is tracking >1.0, and Solly believes sales are tracking within the 0-10% q/q growth guidance range. AMD's early part of the qtr has been slow, in-line with expectations, and but expects H2 to be seasonally stronger. TER expects semi test to grow faster than TCS, supporting Solly's view for longer term GM expansion. MOT believes it can achieve 15% ROC over an entire cycle through its new SPS biz model; expects additional customer announcements in its wireless merchant mkt segment in the coming weeks. VECO reiterated guidance including up q/q orders with semi biz a bit stronger than expected. MU's transition to the 0.13mu process is going well and mgmt is revising upward its bit output this qtr from to +high 20% from +15% q/q. 12:24AM Marvell positive at conference 34.78 -1.02: Hearing from sources that Marvell Technology provided an upbeat outlook during its presentation today at the Salomon Smith Barney Semi Conference. Company said to have reiterated comfort with 10% growth guidance and predicted a design win next week for 802.11; backlog said to be strong. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC&d=t RtS