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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3087)	5/8/2002 10:31:58 PM
From: JSLyons	Respond to of 95487

Excellent point, Cary.... <<I speak of the "market" but I am really referring to top quality semis and semi-equips. Overall averages may do worse because of the continuing decline in telecom equipment sales.>> Along with the likelihood of lagging indices and averages, we may well have underperformance by some of the marquee names of "tech." The best thing that could happen is a de-coupling of the quality, leading-edge semi-equips and the 800-lb gorillas of the last "tech" up-cycle.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3087)	5/8/2002 10:47:57 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95487

Cary, I can believe your scenario, with the proviso you have made, with respect to the top quality semis and semi-equips. I say that because I believe the "up cycle" for the semi-equips is just getting underway and should last for quite a few months yet. With bookings and shipments increasing each month for the rest of the year, I could not envision the semi-equips(with perhaps minor exceptions) going beneath their lows of last September. I also agree that as the year continues prices should be highest towards the end of the year. Again, this is due to the same reason - higher bookings and shipments as the year continues. A little proviso here however, if the bookings cycle starts to weaken around the end of the year, stock prices could start to decrease. During the previous 3 upcycles, stock prices peak about 3 to 6 months prior to the overall bookings peak. I am assuming now that the increase in bookings will ramp up relatively slow compared to the previous periods and therefore continue well into 2003. Don