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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (13741)	5/9/2002 8:34:43 AM
From: pvz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

KB, that "combustible combination of endless, heavy gloom" is smouldering on with the bearish camp. They may be right but I think it is essential to have a completely open mind at times like this. I have an accounting type question on something completely unrelated. I bought TYC on its run up last week and sold just before it reached its 9 ema where it turned back, as expected. It did a decent Fib retracement and is now looking pretty favourable for a new rise, to the top of its gap around $25. stockcharts.com[e,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!d20,2!b200!h.02,.20!c200!c20!c9!c13!i!f][vc60][iut!Ue12,26,21!Ub13!Ud80!Lo13!Ll20!Lp20,9,5!Lah12,26,9!Lf!Lc20]&pref=G Unfortunately, I can't get around the fundamentals and this morning I finally figured out what was bothering me. I understand TYC wasn't able to get the price they were hoping for in the past couple of weeks for the divisions they wanted to spin off. In other words, the sum of the parts might not be greater than the whole after all. Does that not mean the company is running a real risk of needing to write down some of that massive goodwill they have parked in the balance sheet? moneycentral.msn.com pvz

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (13741)	5/9/2002 6:03:17 PM
From: pvz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

I think it was Warpfactor who mentioned a couple of months ago how it is psychologically easier to try to catch a falling knife than it is to buy when the market is rallying as it did yesterday. I agree 100%. Also, if you believed today was simply a consolidation, you would be happy to be able to buy at lower prices than yesterday. Alas, the psychology doesn't work that way, at least for me it doesn't, after such a long bear market. Today was all worry that the rally wasn't real. I thought I would post today's updated $CPC:VIX chart. stockcharts.com[e,a]dhllnyay[de][pb15!b100][vc60][J4304647,Y]&listNum=11 I don't know why it works the way it does, but today was the day I have been waiting for, for the past couple of months. Namely, the 15 dma crossed down over the 100 dma. The last 2 times it did that before were in March and September 2001. Before that, it crossed in October 2000, which turned out to be bullish for the broader market, albeit bearish for the techs. If it works again, I will wish I had placed more faith in it and used today's weakness as a major buying opportunity... and if it doesn't, well, it will prove that you can't rely on any one method for predicting turning points in the market. At least I'm not sitting in cash or short. Whatever the outcome, it does give the bullish camp some food for thought... and the bearish one too.