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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (12026)	5/9/2002 1:19:53 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

US Predicts Weaker El Nino Than in 1998 By Randy Fabi WASHINGTON (Reuters) - This year's looming El Nino, the weather anomaly blamed for devastating droughts and floods, will be much weaker than it was in 1997-98 when it caused an estimated 24,000 deaths and $34 billion in damage worldwide, government weather experts said on Thursday. However, governments from Indonesia to South Africa are preparing for the worst because even a weak El Nino can have a significant impact on developing countries. El Nino, or "boy child" in Spanish, is an abnormal warming of waters in the eastern Pacific that distorts wind and rainfall patterns around the world, causing floods and droughts. It usually occurs every four to five years and can last up to 18 months. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the federal agency that first predicted El Nino's return four months ago, projected a "weak to moderate" El Nino by the end of this year. NOAA said the weather phenomenon will have "considerably weaker global impacts (this year) than were experienced during the very strong 1997-98 El Nino." El Nino was first reported by Latin American fishermen in the 19th century and was named after the Christ child because it was usually seen in Pacific waters around Christmas. REVISING EL NINO'S IMPACT Meteorologists revised last month's forecast that the United States would feel the effects of an imminent El Nino by mid-summer. They said the rapid warming patterns observed in the last few months along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru have weakened. Vernon Kousky, NOAA's lead El Nino forecaster, told Reuters the agency now predicts the United States would be hit by El Nino sometime this winter. In a typical El Nino, the United States would see fewer Atlantic hurricanes and a milder summer rainy season in the U.S. Southwest. The Pacific Northwest would have less snow in the winter, while Gulf Coast states may experience heavier rainfall. Kousky said the weather anomaly could rapidly worsen or dissipate depending on its development in the next few weeks. Governments, farmers and health officials are closely monitoring the nascent El Nino, fearful of a repeat of the destructive 1997-98 episode. Weather experts consider the severity of the 1997-98 episode extremely rare, as it caused major floods in Peru and Ecuador and droughts in Australia and the Philippines. "It's unfortunate we have to compare this El Nino to the last event, which was one of the strongest in the last 125 years," Kousky said. "People have in their minds that we will see the same impacts, but we will not." A Salomon Smith Barney report said on Monday that El Nino would mean increased risk for crops across the Western Pacific later this year. That includes agricultural commodities from the Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Southeast Asia and to some extent India and southern China. In South Africa, weather experts said they expected the region to be hit at the end of the year, bringing yet another dry spell after a disappointing harvest already this year. "We concur with NOAA that there may be a weak-to-moderate El Nino, but we still have to wait until June to be more certain," said Melton Mugeri, a meteorologist at the South African Weather Service. A U.N. World Food Program official said in April that if crops failed again in southern Africa in the coming season, the scale of disaster would be "unimaginable." ca.news.yahoo.com