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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Killswitch who wrote (12165)5/9/2002 4:54:13 PM
From: Dan Duchardt  Respond to of 19219
 
Posted for information, without opinion as to merit

(COMTEX) B: Flap Over Gold Derivative "Firings"
B: Flap Over Gold Derivative "Firings"

May 08, 2002 (Miningweb/All Africa Global Media via COMTEX) -- Gold bug
extraordinaire Bill Murphy reported in a circular to readers of the LeMetropole
Web site that JP Morgan Chase's derivatives operations are in chaos. The bank
flatly denies the claims and Miningweb has verified that at least one of the
executives said to have been "fired" is still on staff.

Murphy's note reads: "?my source received the following from a futures and
options broker in London who works for one of the Gold Cartel bullion banks:

* The gold derivative department of J.P. Morgan Chase is being investigated.

* The man who ran the department has been fired.

* This was discussed on CNBC Europe, but was called "still a rumor" by the
program host.

* It appears the "conspiracy guys" were right all along."

Murphy also says a South African source with links to JPMC claims it has: "lost
control of the gold market and that the gold derivative department was a mess."

Donald Eckert, global bullion risk manager at JPMC New York, was contemptuous of
the claims and says nobody has been fired in the derivatives or bullion trading
departments. He also denied Murphy's report that JPMC managing director of
global commodities, Dinsa Mehta, was axed "two weeks ago".

Eckert says Mehta volunteered for retirement after the global forex options,
forex and gold trading desks were rationalized into a single department. "He was
not fired at all, he chose to resign."

As Muphy notes, corporate resignations and retirements are often sublimely
obtuse with highly charged executives suddenly in the mood for family time and
more golf.

Enron

Another wrinkle is Mehta's involvement in the Enron fiasco. The House Committee
on Energy and Commerce in March called on JPMC to provide copies of any
correspondence involving Mehta and Enron's Mahonia subsidiary.

Mahonia was a Jersey (British Channel Islands) energy trading business
established by JPMC in the early 90s which did most of its business with Enron.
Initially it focused on year-end transactions apparently designed to shift tax
losses between reporting periods but also served as a capital raising vehicle.

When Enron collapsed, Mahonia owed JPMC billions of dollars, which insurers are
now refusing to cover because they say the energy transactions were fraudulent.

Mehta's precise role in Mahonia is unclear, but he is said to have boasted to
colleagues about the fees the transactions generated for JPMC, and which
presumably translated into handsome bonuses. The structure of the energy trades
was nearly identical to gold hedging with which Mehta would have been especially
familiar.

Hedging

Indeed, Mehta is well known as an arch proponent of hedging and says routinely
that gold has been "stripped of its monetary attribute by the globalisation of
the international financial system" and that gold has lost its "crisis currency"
role.

He was not wholly negative, noting at the 2000 Australian gold conference:
"Freed of central bank supply, underlying fundamentals are building an
impressively positive case: low investment in new supply, net reserve
exhaustion, and a solid demand base, that should allow cycle ranges to
eventually trend higher perhaps sharply higher toward the end of the central
bank supply pipeline."

While he relentlessly promoted gold hedging, Mehta was never an all-or-nothing
player. He urged companies to do nothing more than manage their revenues better
according to the price cycle and has credible evidence to show that it worked in
gold's trough. "A gold mining company can today position itself anywhere along a
wide risk spectrum. The derivatives market simply enables that choice," he said.

The problem now is that the hedgers have been caught on the hop in failing to
call the cycle turn more precisely ? they came to believe their own thesis that
gold is irredeemably a commodity. In the context of the current uptrend in gold
prices, Metha's retirement probably might rightly be taken as another bullish
sign.


by Tim Wood

Copyright Miningweb. Distributed by All Africa Global Media(AllAfrica.com)



To: Killswitch who wrote (12165)5/10/2002 10:04:17 AM
From: Killswitch  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19219
 
I think it might be possible to make the case that the Naz/NDX formed a H&S top over the past 2 days and we cracked the neckline this morning.