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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (63579)	5/9/2002 6:25:07 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

I don't buy the "double dip". We were in a recession and a bubble aftermath and were hit by 9/11 and we didn't get 2 consecutive quarters of declining GDP. We have had strong fiscal and monetary stimuli and there is no reason to believe this will change in the short run. The recovery will be slow, but each month that passes indicates we are making slow progress through the leftover bubble problems. We understand better than most that there is an engine of progress that continues to chug along and, again, each month brings forth the prospect of new faster, better, cheaper, smaller, lower power consumption. GDP will not match Q1 for the rest of the year. Unemployment is a lagging indicator and has continued to get worse, but, in time, it will start improving. There is an election in November. We will not be in recession at election time. Semi equip bookings have jumped after a long flat bottom. Part of this is a larger increase in back end than overall booking which reflects a rise in semi unit volume. Another part is a pickup in technology orders which reflect the fact that the strongest semi demand is in the newest technologies. Both of these don't augur the kind of bookings growth that analysts are projecting. I don't think a "double dip" will have too much effect on orders this year because the dip would reflect the overall economy and be primarily a statistical phenomena while orders reflect the technology economy which still has large sectors in recession.