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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (63591)	5/10/2002 12:00:55 AM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

You posted, I also contend that not all investors despair at a bottom. Gottfried This is what I think too. As for myself,holding a little more than 10,000 shares over 10 companies. With only 62% stock and 38% cash, a little more downside will be buying op, while yesterday 12% plus and only 2.3% down today says thinks are ok with me for what ever direction the market moves. Unlike July 2000 with 100% in stock and margined, it hurt my portfolio which dropped 65% in months. Scared now, no way. Stan

To: Gottfried who wrote (63591)	5/10/2002 12:04:47 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>It is, of course, accepted wisdom that at a market bottom capitulation occurs. I just don't understand how sentiment then turns to produce a rise. I also contend that not all investors despair at a bottom.< Capitulation has been happening for a couple years now. We just have not had that final blow off. Sentiment does not turn to produce a rise. It falls. When sentiment reaches tremendously bearish levels the market has a chance to find the elusive bottom. Coming off the bottom the market then rebounds with vigor like it did yesterday with an even better ratio of up to down issues. Even then sentiment does not turn immediately. It cannot if it did then it would just be another Bear Market rally. Sentiment turns after the rise. There is a lot of negativity these days. Former Bulls are turning into bears. Many investors who have never shorted stocks are trying it with good success. This of course cannot continue. The market can only go so low. Especially if we do have a recovery taking place without a double dip. Unfortunately valuations are still high. If we do not see the SOX show sustained strength soon we will retest the lows of last September in my opinion. Perhaps lower. Of course not all investors are despairing these days. Many have been making money shorting stocks. Eventually they too will despair when the short covering rallies turn into an actual bull market. RtS