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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (165055)	5/10/2002 12:50:49 PM
From: oldirtybastard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

there's some other things in the report that sound really cool -g- 08:17am EDT 10-May-02 Goldman Sachs (HOTTENSEN HODES NEWYORK) ACF ACF.MS Details: ACF (RL): A Fresh Look at Upcoming Trends. Goldman, Sachs & Co. Investment Research ACF (RL): A Fresh Look at Upcoming Trends. *************************************************************************** * We are reiterating our constructive view on ACF and $50, 12 month target* * price. ACF appears to be tracking expectations closely and our analysis * * of the widely tracked cash metric, cash distributed from trusts, * * suggests a material pickup as we move through CY02. That said, near-term* * ACF news flow is likely to prove less definitive than it has been in * * recent months; the April securitization data (released 5/13) and that * * from coming months is unlikely to settle questions about credit trends * * and detail on the June quarter won't be out until August. Accordingly, * * we are anticipating a volatile, but range bound trajectory for ACF in * * coming months. We note ACF will be presenting 5/14 at our conference. * *************************************************************************** Robert G. Hottensen (New York) 1 212-902-6719 - Investment Research Michael S. Hodes (New York) 1 212-902-6772 - Investment Research Jeremy Simon (New York) 1 212-855-9058 - Investment Research ====================== NOTE 7:43 AM May 10, 2002 ====================== Stk Latest 52 Week Mkt Cap YTD Pr Cur Rtg Close Range (mm) Change Yield --- ------ ------- ------- ------ ----- AmeriCredit Corp. RL 39.09 64-15 3315.4 24% 0.0% ACF --------------Earnings Per Share--------------- EPS* (US$) Sep Dec Mar Jun FY CY 2003 FY NA NA NA NA 4.60 4.90 2002 FY 0.88A 0.91A 1.02A 1.04 3.85 4.25 2001 FY(A) 0.51 0.57 0.70 0.81 2.60 3.30 GSCOPE EPS* (US$) Sep Dec Mar Jun FY CY 2003 FY NA NA NA NA NA NA 2002 FY NA NA 1.02A NA NA NA 2001 FY(A) NA NA 0.70 NA NA NA -Abs P/E on- -Rel P/E on-- EV/NxtFY LT EPS Cur Nxt Cur Nxt EBITDA Growth ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ EPS* FY 10.2X 8.5X 0.3X 0.3X NA NA CY 9.2 8.0 NA NA GSCOPE EPS* FY NA NA CY NA NA --------------------------------------------------------------------------- * may differ from U.S. GAAP =========================================================================== * APRIL'S TRENDS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN LINE: We are looking for relatively stable seq. delinquency + deferment trends, higher loss levels, and cash distributions in the $13-15mn range (see below). We view these trends as somewhat ambiguous as they are broadly consistent with expectations and leave plenty of clearance on cash trapping triggers but don't settle any questions regarding credit quality or cash flow. For instance, a stable delinquency pattern would end improvements seen in Feb and Mar and could introduce fresh questions about the impact of recent deferments and seasonality (delinquencies historically have improved Feb-Jun and headed higher as we hit July). * CASH DISTRIBUTIONS FROM TRUSTS APPEAR SET TO IMPROVE. We continue to focus on cash earnings metrics in our analysis of ACF to avoid the potential distortions that come with gain on sale accounting under GAAP. Our analysis of one widely watched cash flow proxy, distributions from trusts, indicates we will see a material increase in cash distributed (from $55mn in the Mar quarter to about $100mn in the Dec quarter, roughly $300mn in CY02 vs. $235mn in CY01) this year as the base of assets eligible to distribute cash ratchets up. While this is a clear positive as it diffuses some concerns about cash flow growth, it doesn't imply a favorable swing in cash returns on assets. In fact, ACF's true cash returns remain surprisingly difficult to capture and will likely be under pressure as long as credit losses are rising (we are modeling a peak late this year). At our conference we expect ACF to focus on cash trends and returns. See below for more detail on our proprietary modeling of the distributed cash flow as well as the assumptions underpinning our analysis. =========================================================================== A CLOSER LOOK AT ACF'S SECURITIZATION PERFORMANCE. As part of our focus on ACF's cash earnings, we have developed a proprietary model of the company's distributed cash flow from its trusts (1) for the remainder of 2002. Although our modeling, which attempts to capture the prospective distributed cash flow based on the timing and size of the trusts, falls shy of management's guidance of $320-$340mn for this calendar year, it does offer a solid sanity check. On fairly modest assumptions, we are modeling a material pick-up in distributed cash flow as several larger trusts come on line and at least three significant clean-up calls are made over the course of the year. Below, we provide a summary of the results of our analysis and the underlying assumtions (Tables 1 + 2). Our complete distributed cash flow model is available upon request (email jeremy.simon@gs.com). (1) Distributed cash from trusts represents the cash flow available to ACF on loans that it has financed in the asset backed market. Since ACF ends up securitizing virtually all of its loans, trust distributions are widely watched by investors. @@@@@ Table 1: Results of Distributed Cash Flow model Mar-02 Jun-02E Sep-02E Dec-02E Distributed Cash Flow $55 $65-70 $75-80 $95-105 2001 2002E % Chg. Distributed Cash Flow $235 $290-310 23-32% Source: Company data and Goldman Sachs research estimates. @@@@@ @@@@@ Table 2: Assumptions Used in Distributed Cash Flow Calculation -Wrapped trusts begin to distribute cash at month 15-16. -Senior subordinated trusts begin to distribute cash at month 17-18. -Distribution from Trust A equals Trust A's average distribution as a percent of the average monthly principal balance times the specific month's average principal balance (for trusts that have not previously distributed cash, the average of all the trusts is used). -Each month the EOP principal balance declines in the Trust by the previous month's decline less 0.05%. -Distributed cash flow during the month a trust first begins to distribute cash is calculatd using a smaller percentage (20 bps. vs. 70 bps.). -For trusts where an interest rate swap exists, the impact of the interest rate swap is held constant at the average of the previous three months. -Clean-up calls are forecast during the month when the EOP principal balance would fall under 10%. @@@@@ APRIL DATA TO BE RELEASED ON MONDAY (5/13). As previously discussed, we expect the April trends to show stable delinquencies, higher losses, and $13-$15mn in distributed cash flow. In Table 3, we have outlined ACF's performance across several key metrics over the past three months and our respective, rough April forecasts. @@@@@ Table 3 - 2002 Monthly Securitization Data Jan Feb Mar Apr(E) Credit Losses (%) 6.35 6.04 6.21 6.40-6.60 60+ Delinquency Ratio (%) 3.71 3.46 3.18 3.25-3.35 Deferments (%) 2.20 1.52 1.85 1.80-1.90 Repo. (%) 1.10 1.30 1.10 1.00-1.10 Distributed Cash Flow ($ mn) 12.2 13.5 28.7(1) 13.0-15.0 Notes: (1) Included $11 mn clean-up call (1998B) Source: Company data and Goldman Sachs research estimates.

To: orkrious who wrote (165055)	5/10/2002 3:22:39 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

no housing bubble <g> <<Greenspan played down concerns that residential house prices over the past few years constituted an asset bubble. "I don't think we have a bubble in house prices," he said, citing market dynamics that made it more difficult for buyers to jump on a bandwagon as in the stock market. >> Mr. Greenspan might want to actually acquaint himself with the "market dynamics" of the housing market. How in the world does this moron not understand that the refinance/cash-out market in fact DOES allow EVERYBODY to jump on the bandwagon, not just those who are actually buying/selling properties. As I have noted in a prior post, all I need is for ONE condo on my block to actually TRADE and within 3 months the whole block can be re-financed at the new improved higher price. [side note. i got an offer from my bank for a home equity line. applied on-line. said my condo was worth $x. the bank's appraiser CALLED me and asked me questions about the condo. i closed on a $100k equity line at 500 bps, and have now borrowed 90% of the value of my home. can you imagine, these guys just gave me $100 grand and didn't even come to look at the property] <<He added that recent data show some softening of home prices as well. "If there is a big boomlet going, it's not showing itself in the most recent data. The most recent data show some edging off in the overall markets," Greenspan said. >> This is priceless. There is no bubble since prices are starting to come down. That's what Henry Blow-jet said about Amazon. Jeez-us, how did this guy get his job?? Cheers [before anybody asks, i did NOT apply the $100k to add to my ACF short]