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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51294)5/10/2002 2:56:58 PM
From: t2  Respond to of 65232
 
JW, That was a great article on dollar/gold.

They are definitely calling it a bubble; no doubt about it.

Options expiration on Gold kept a lid on it; no doubt about imho.

Monday is going to be a lot of fun.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51294)5/10/2002 2:57:37 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
IBM Plans to Cut Up to 9,500 Jobs

By Caroline Humer
Friday May 10, 1:48 pm Eastern Time

NEW YORK (Reuters) - International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM - News), faced with stagnant sales due to a technology spending slowdown, is poised for its largest work force reduction in a decade, according to a person close to the situation.

The source said the job cuts are anticipated at between 2.5 percent and 3 percent of the world's largest computer maker's 318,000-member work force, or between 7,950 and 9,540 workers.

Most of the cuts are expected to take place in the second quarter and are targeted at specific divisions rather than the entire company.

Analysts have widely anticipated the reductions since last month, when IBM reported a sharper than expected 30 percent decline in first-quarter earnings, its biggest drop since the emerging from a period of losses in 1993.

A spokesman for the Armonk, New York, company declined to comment. "We're constantly rebalancing our work force according to market conditions," he said.

Indeed, IBM in recent years has made mostly small cuts in specific divisions as part of what it calls skills rebalancing. For instance, in November it cut 1,000 people from its semiconductor division, which is suffering from the worst industry downturn in a decade.

COUNTERING TRENDS

Still, the work force reduction comes at a time when job cuts in the computer industry are waning, according to data from Chicago outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. In the first four months of 2002, job cuts in the sector fell to 21,640 from 53,774 a year earlier, it said.

IBM shares were down 42 cents at $79.51 in afternoon New York Stock Exchange trade.

Last year, when other tech companies were slashing their headcount as hardware sales dried up, IBM was adding staff as its strong services revenue offset weakness elsewhere. But that strength began to erode in the fourth quarter as customers cut spending on services too.

"The cycle has impacted IBM with a bit of a lag compared with others," J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Kunstler said.

Hardware operations and some services, particularly consulting and systems integration, have apparently stalled out, he said.

But Kunstler said he doesn't expect the cuts to hurt the company's competitive position. "I would not equate percentage of job cuts with any kind of material loss of market share," he said, "at least not in the areas where they want to have market share."

The anticipated cuts come only a few months into the tenure of Chief Executive Sam Palmisano, who took over from Lou Gerstner on March 1.

In his nine years as CEO, Gerstner was credited with turning the loss-making company around. He remains chairman through the end of the year.

Palmisano told employees on April 24 that IBM would have to pare its work force because of the decline in corporations' demand for technology, according to an investor newsletter that published an edited transcript of the broadcast this week.

THE CUTS START HERE

Gartner Inc. research director Tom Bittman said he expects the first cuts to be in the Global Services division, which accounts for about half of IBM's employee base and more than 40 percent of revenue.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers in the thousands in Global Services," Bittman said. "That would be the easiest and probably the least painful area where IBM could make cuts."

In addition, he said, the software division and departments associated with IBM's large computers for businesses may also need to cut staff.

In the first quarter, revenues fell 2.9 percent for global services, 0.7 percent for software revenue and 21 percent for enterprise systems, which include large computers and data storage machines.

SoundView Technology analyst Gary Helmig said earlier this week that he expects about a 10 percent reduction in IBM's North American sales and distribution force, which he estimates is currently about 10,000 people.

"Their revenue is going to be down," Helmig said. "And you don't need to have as much structure to support it."

Analysts on average estimate 2002 revenue of $83 billion, down from $85.9 billion in 2001, according to Thomson Financial/First Call.

The anticipated work force reductions would be the largest for IBM since the early 1990s, when it made several rounds of cuts in chunks of 10,000 to 20,000 to try to return to profitability.

Besides struggling with lower earnings this year, IBM has battled questions over its accounting as investors remain wary of such practices since the Enron Corp. (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News) scandal.

The stock has fallen about 34 percent this year, far more sharply than IBM's rivals. The American Stock Exchange Computer Hardware Index is down 15 percent so far this year.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51294)5/10/2002 2:58:59 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Greenspan: Capital Spending Outlook Good

May 10 1:17pm ET

By Victoria Thieberger

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Friday he saw no bubble in the U.S. housing market and added that longer-term prospects for crucial capital spending were sound even with a mixed near-term outlook.

And while there was probably some statistical "noise" in recently released first-quarter productivity data showing an annualized growth rate of 8.6 percent, the Fed chief said, productivity growth remains strong, thus lifting the pace at which the economy can grow without triggering inflation.

In a wide-ranging question session after a speech to a banking conference here, Greenspan also said recent increases in oil prices bore watching. But he added that they would have to be much larger damaging the economy, which is in the fragile early stages of recovering from last year's shallow recession.

"With a fairly large amount of exploitable capital investment out there, the short-term outlook for capital investment is rather mixed, but the longer term outlook is increasingly, persuasively good," the Fed chairman said.

Economists have said that a resurgence in business spending is critical to the sustainability of the expansion, since consumer demand is not expected to give a big fillip to growth and a boost from inventory restocking is unlikely to last.

Fed policymakers this week left short-term interest rates unchanged at four-decade lows as they waited for clearer signs that the recovery is secure.

NO BUBBLE IN HOUSING

Greenspan played down concerns that residential house prices over the past few years constituted an asset bubble.

"I don't think we have a bubble in house prices," he said, citing market dynamics that made it more difficult for buyers to jump on a bandwagon as in the stock market. He added that recent data show some softening of home prices as well.

"If there is a big boomlet going, it's not showing itself in the most recent data. The most recent data show some edging off in the overall markets," Greenspan said.

On worker output, he reiterated that productivity is "the most important question" for the long-term economic outlook, but that recent figures showing an 8.6 percent annual pace did not amount to "a long-term trend."

He said the sharp drop in capital investment may have actually enhanced productivity growth, or output per hour worked, because the level of disruption to workers from new technology was reduced.

Productivity is seen as critical for increasing the long-term potential rate at which the economy can grow without raising price pressures because employers can roll out more goods and services without adding to payrolls.

Right now, inflation in the U.S. economy remains subdued as shown in producer price data released earlier on Friday showing the wholesale inflation eased 0.2 percent in April, but if activity does pick up later in the year, inflation worries could return to the radar screens.

But Greenspan did warn against complacency on the recent rise in oil prices. While saying he did not think the recent climb had done any economic damage, he said: "It's an issue which you can very easily tranquilize yourself into believing it's not an important problem, but I haven't succeeded in tranquilizing myself yet on this issue."

Separately, Greenspan said it was important for companies to count options granted to officers as expenses because it could help reveal whether a corporate strategy was working.

"If you're getting labor services through stock options rather than cash compensation, and you don't expense them in one form or another...you're making the statement that the value of those services are zero," he said.

The Fed chief, whose opinion is respected by both Wall Street and Washington, last week urged regulators to overhaul rules on stock options in the wake of the unraveling of disgraced energy trader Enron Corp -- diverging from the Bush administration which wants to keep the status quo.

His speech earlier focused on banks' efforts to better manage their lending risks, saying that would help lessen the tendency of bank lending to follow ups and downs in the overall economy.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51294)5/11/2002 10:25:35 AM
From: t2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
JW, In the event of a big drop in the stock market, how can Gold stocks avoid the plunge? This is the issue I am trying to wrestle with.

Sure if Gold price takes off one would think that stocks would do well...but will there be any serious buying of these stocks in the event of a market crash?
Could the gold stocks start falling even if the POG goes higher.

I don't know if I posted that article that makes a case for Dow going higher if dollar plunges.....of course the buying power of the dollar would be less..and that is the logic behind a higher Dow.
The author made that case that Gold would do best.

I do think that in a slow steady Nasdaq or Dollar decline, Gold stocks would do well.
The other odd thing is that my feeling is that safe stocks will start ralling if the dollar starts to plunge further; a rush out of treasurie and into stocks, away from paper currency in to real hard assets and that includes many safe Dow stocks.