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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan G who wrote (17109)	5/11/2002 1:24:28 PM
From: Susan G	Respond to of 26752

TOUGH TO WATCH! By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) Today was as poor a Friday as you could get, especially after a very, very strong rally Wednesday that had tremendous potential, but it failed again. We had no upside follow-through yesterday, but easily followed through to the downside today. Right after a slightly positive opening, prices started retreating and the rest of the session was spent going down in a three-step decline that closed the indices at the lows for the day across the board. It was one of those miserable days that was tough to watch, with sellers appearing on every intraday rally attempt. The technicals bore that out today with the advance-declines 2-1 negative on New York and about the same on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was way worse than even that: 4 ½-1 negative on New York and nearly 8-1 negative on Nasdaq, with 1.6 billion shares down and only 222 million up. The market may be in trouble and is now at a critical stage. After breaking out and running up against the moving averages, we have come down sharply for two days and given back about two-thirds of the gains on the Nasdaq 100 and almost all of it on the S&P 500. Unless chart support holds at last Tuesday’s lows and the indices either make a higher low or double-bottom, it’s now very possible that the market may do a complete test of the September lows. The market just cannot sustain any movement to the upside, and the path of least resistance is obviously still down until they arrest the selling pressure or put in a climax sell-off low. There is always the chance that the indices can still back and fill in this area and create a base pattern from which to move up, but unfortunately right now selling pressure persists on every rally, and the market may have some more downside work to do before we’re done. My personal trading board today was about as ugly as the general market, with only 2 or 3 advancers and about 20 losers. There weren’t many stocks down more than a couple points, but those included Veritas down 2 ½, Nvidia 2 ½ and Microsoft down more than 2. Only a couple of gainers: OVTI was a standout today, up a half a dollar. Verisign managed to get into the plus column. There were very few bright spots. We’ll have to see if they can stabilize on Monday and try to hold these lows or whether they’re going to have to come down hard and test the September lows. Good trading! Harry (c)2002, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com),