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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (165145)	5/10/2002 6:04:11 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Credit quality clearly deteriorating at HI (from their 10K released tonight): biz.yahoo.com Delinquency - Owned Basis Two-Months-and-Over Contractual Delinquency (as a percent of consumer receivables): March 31, December 31, March 31, 2002 2001 2001 ----------------------------- ---------------- ----------------- --------------- Real estate secured 2.88% 2.63% 2.55% Auto finance 2.04 2.92 1.74 MasterCard/Visa 6.54 5.67 5.02 Private label 6.33 5.99 5.62 Personal non-credit card 9.60 9.04 8.79 ----------------------------- ---------------- ----------------- --------------- Total Owned 4.77% 4.53% 4.36% ============================= ================ ================= =============== The 10K also features a highly convoluted discussion of their securitization practices (featuring extensive use of SPE's, yes, the same structure that imploded Enron). Bon appetit!

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (165145)	5/10/2002 9:14:14 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I'm going to nail that one yet... she's taken a lot of dead soldiers for burial at sea however! Let me know when, I'll pooot it with you. IMO we're in the poot anything portion of the sell off. DAK

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (165145)	5/10/2002 11:34:10 PM
From: reaper	Respond to of 436258

<<Do you have a take on MBI at this point. >> Yeah, I'm short <g> That one's been going against me for a while (Ambak too). I make the same argument here as I do w/ ACF, or the PMI companies -- they are "insuring" what are at the end of day in my opinion correlated risks. When things go to hell, the correlations all go to 1 and MBI's (and ABK's) capital gets eliminated. There's nothing funny about the accounting or anything like that; I just don't agree that what they do is an actual "business" -- they will make a little, make a little, make a little.....until....they lose it all. IMHO only, of course. And DON'T try to predict WHEN exactly it'll happen; that's why I have it as a long-term short-and-hold among a bunch of un-correlated assets <g> Cheers