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To: bill who wrote (3301)	5/11/2002 9:52:27 PM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Respond to of 11633

I asked why Pengrowth's price had fallen as much as it has. You answered by explaining your strategy for dealing with the weakness in price. ------ I'll try to word this a different way. AY.UN hit a high of $13.40 and a low of $8.75 in 2001. PGF.UN hit a high of $21.95 and a low of $12.80 in 2001. Thats a 35% drop compared to a 41% drop. The question then is whether there is much significance between the two. Further is whether someone who just bought at the highs and no further in either case is much happier. Both sufferred double digit losses (if we look at point A to point B in time). Now in both cases for PGF and or AY accumulating on the weakness would have given better results ------------- I agree with your strategy. I average both up and down. However, I'd also like to know, if anyone on the thread knows, why the weakness in Pengrowth that I have not seen in some other O&G stocks. --------- As I show above its a matter of how you look at it and where you are looking from ------------- Is it simply a stock price response to falling distributions? Or, is there something more substantial that is wrong? Is there a problem with management? With reserves? Strategy (hedging, acquisitions)? If it is simply falling distributions, this may correct itself. ---------- Maybe there is no one specific thing. No one simple answer. And maybe the question itself is not of so great importance. In the bigger picture. In the bigger picture the price will fall sometimes dramatically and then the price will recover sometimes just as dramatically. That we have all seen in the last year. Getting scared or nervous and doing the wrong thing at the wrong time for the wrong reasons is just maybe a bigger concern. Just look to the past case for PWI. It fell dramatically and quite quickly only to do the reverse and rise just as dramatically and just as quickly. Was there a real reason for it or not, you decide. ------------ The so-called structured trusts in the US are finding, for example, that there was a basic flaw in their strategy. The result is a drop in both price and distributions.