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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (59431)	5/11/2002 10:32:17 AM
From: stan_hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

Louis - Maybe I gave you the wrong impression. QP practices I was referring to are voluntary. This example tells the tale better than I could regurgitate it here - news.com.com Set aside analyst behavior and just look at public company employees. Most (credible) companies have adopted rigid interpretations of what insider trading is. IMO the rules were always quite clear - no trades, period, based on anything other than fully disseminated info - but few paid attention to the rules, or needed to. Now, in no small part for PR purposes, many companies have put formal policies in place prohibiting their employees from transacting in company stock within a time frame window around material reporting events, the grandaddy of which is an earnings release. The earnings quiet period typically brackets the period between near the quarter's end (while the numbers are being prepared) until a few days after numbers have been released. The same restrictions that apply to employees making public statements also apply to making personal trades. Here is a published example of a quiet period length - digitalinsight.com This is another example of a standing policy that will kick in on June 15th - investor.ncr.com Here is yet another example, in this case not earnings but the upcoming INTC guidance - intel.com INTC has repeated it here, believe me, they are serious about this stuff - intel.com Someone found yakking or ditching company stock in a quiet period ahead of a bad announcement, embarrassing the firm, will be found to have breached a serious company policy, and is asking to get canned for cause. Now this - the lawyers trying to avoid class action suits for bad guidance have also gotten into the act. Here's another lift from the 8-K from STZ - "Beginning May 18, 2002, Constellation will observe a "Quiet Period" during which the Outlook no longer constitutes the Company's current expectations. During the Quiet Period, the Outlook should be considered to be historical, speaking as of prior to the Quiet Period only and not subject to update by the Company. During the Quiet Period, Constellation's representatives will not comment concerning the Outlook or Constellation's financial results or expectations. The Quiet Period will extend until the day when Constellation's next quarterly Earnings Release is published, presently scheduled for Thursday, June 27, 2002." Translation = Nobody is on the hook for having said one thing while acting (e.g. trading) in the opposite fashion from May 18th until June 27th. Nice window for saying "Gee, I didn't know for sure that things weren't going so well". More about Q2 - Most companies have 12/31 fiscal YEs and will hold their AGM between now and 6/30. Forget waiting on the filings. CEOs on the podium at the AGM will be clued into the first half results and likely telling shareholders to not expect too much, and reining in the fiscal 2002 forecasts. If there is a reduction in expectations for the "E", can a reduction in the "P" be far behind? Rhetorical question. Technical action is this environment is self-explanatory. We break all the lines six ways to Sunday. TA sellers and short sellers join the FA sellers, and no one is buying. Don't ask me where the bottom will be, I don't know, but I sure can see the direction. On gold action, there is lots of room between here and the trend line. Could be many, many moons before it ever kisses it, but IMO you need to have some nuts stored in case someone (AG) would like to try and push it there. And your time horizon isn't shrinking, it's just that your long term prognostication from last year is getting closer to occurring ROFL - time to start working on the next "where will we go from here"