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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan_hughes who wrote (59455)	5/12/2002 10:38:54 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

stan - are you a bear? I like to follow the Schaeffer's setup on monthlies. 10 and 20 months. They call a market a bear when the 10 crosses the 20. bigcharts.marketwatch.com Cross of death was Jan 2001. While 20 mos. average is in free fall, 10 mos. curve starts flattening as post-911 prices have challenged the average. Too late? Don't look for a daily chart with 100-200-300 averages. Averages and price are in a narrow range with an upside potential in your range: a killing bear rally if it plays out. It will, IMHO, the market is a bitch. Bearon's cover story is helping for another rally. That helps explain why, even to this day, a lot of the market's smaller, pedestrian issues are holding up fairly well, while the former darlings continue to suffer. Indeed, more than half of the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index are higher this year despite the fact that the index itself has declined 7%. This punk overall performance can be blamed on the likes of GE, IBM, Microsoft and AOL Time Warner, beleaguered stocks that carry a heavy weight in the index due to their size. It should be noted that even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been suffering, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, dominated by old-line companies, has held relatively steady around the 10,000 mark. Well, we discussed past weekend over the spread between the large and micro caps, not with the same conclusions <vbg>. Dow, alsways the same story with most funds playing the demand/supply game ... Well, still searching what to do in the next months. Real assets (you can't live without water and the sector is doing well, well of water <vbg>). Hydrogen fuel cells? The administration is spending money. I still don't like administration involvement in free markets. Nanotechnology and viral manufacturing? Yes, but still a bit early in the cycle. Some cos. I am looking at for a shorter term Dollar weakness are the consumables (P&G, Gilette, Colgate,... )with sales outside the Dollar zone.

To: stan_hughes who wrote (59455)	5/12/2002 10:47:20 AM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 100058

Excellent analysis stan... Thanks, Peter

To: stan_hughes who wrote (59455)	5/12/2002 11:12:39 AM
From: XenaLives	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 100058

I always want to look at things on multiple time frames, so how would you interpret a longer view on a monthly chart, adding a couple of indicators? bigcharts.marketwatch.com Then daily: bigcharts.marketwatch.com Doesn't this show that with MACD swings decreasing, the wave is calming? Then weekly: bigcharts.marketwatch.com

To: stan_hughes who wrote (59455)	5/12/2002 11:45:24 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

stan, "party is indeed over with..." Yes, but . . . depending on your timeframe I don't think it will necessarily be a complete drop from here without any significant rallies. This is significant to many here that are short term traders. While long term bears might be OK, personally if I'm on the wrong side of a 100-200 point move then that would hurt quite a bit. Maybe you've already seen this, but the E-wavers and many others have been somewhat surprised at how prescient the prediction of Tommy Bear has been. Look at how his waves (towards the end of the post) have been unfolding, and look at his scenario for this summer. Something to keep an eye on. Message 17076833