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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (11509)	5/13/2002 1:08:06 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 57684

Thanks for the thoughts and analysis, Sarmad. Our views are very similar. My own conclusion is that there is no longer any reasonable explanation for what is occuring, and it is purely mob sentiment. The flip side of 11/99 to 3/00, which means we are really close. The only thing to fear is that the institutions seem compelled to drag us down to the lows again, on the nasdaq, and it is clear that if that happens we will be far thru the lows on the MSH and the NDX 100. If 1600 isn't enough, why not 1350? And then why not 1250? The msh is much higher than it's 1998 lows, so maybe we need to go there. It's all nonsense now, imo, if you look out a few years, but not enough people are doing that. I hope you are getting through this and have better days ahead.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (11509)	5/13/2002 2:36:59 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 57684

Sarmad, i will say what Eugene knows i harp on elsewhere, and that is one must factor in the bullmarket/bearmarket evaluationns. George Soros is a deep believer in the Boom/Bust cycle. A bust completes itself only when prices revert to bear market evaluations. Like it or not, this has been an unbreakable cycle. The greatest danger of the "New Economy" idea(which i firmly believe to be without foundation); was its capturing people into believing that the New Economy would break the boom/bust cycle( as you probably have had already had thrown at you, that last time "The New Economy" argument was in full swing was during the late 20s--its an OLD STORY going through a very similar replay). At the worst of the last bear cycle the SPX DROPPED to 7-1 based on trailing earnings, and that was JUST 20 years ago. One can say , o it would be SO IRRATIONAL, but the fact is the market never is rational. Those who are being discredited more than anyone are the new economist that have argued the markets are efficient. Hardly do they be efficient,imo. Max