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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan G who wrote (17172)	5/12/2002 8:36:12 PM
From: lifeisgood	Respond to of 26752

My humble diabolical prediction FWIW... We do what looks like a classic double bottom test (slightly lower low) and bounce hard. This pulls in lots of new money and convinces many on the sidelines that "the bottom is in". People take out third mortgages, go on margin so they don't "miss the train", and all the pundits on TV proclaim the end of the bear market. Then, slowly, it grinds back down after the buying pressure subsides. The people putting new money to work now feel foolish and begin selling their new positions at significant losses, the margined people go bankrupt, and the TV talking heads begin talking about "a dire and negative future that extends for years." The market continues to fall precipitously, exceeding even most bears predictions to the downside. When it looks bleak, when everyone and their brother stops calling the bottom, when people stop panic buying at every dip, when they stop saying "it's different this time", and when the VIX is 60+... THEN it will be time to go long... it will be scary but extremely profitable. This bottom could be at levels 50% below where we are now. Those who still have cash at that point could double their money in a short period of time if they aren't afraid to buy at that critical, though scary point. best... LIG