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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (118732)	5/13/2002 12:50:22 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

I've run that 15-16 million chipset shipment estimate through my model using the $35 for 1x and $11 for 95A chipsets ASP's that I came up with after some careful analysis of the last 6 quarters of QCT results. Could you walk me through your thinking? The way I see it....an extra 2 million 1x chipsets would need to be shipped to make the 16 million chipset target. This would translate to an extra $70 million in revenue. It actually could be higher since essentially all of the extra 2 million chipsets will be MSM5100 which would have a higher ASP than the average 1x chipset (the MSM5000/5105). If the margins remained identical to last quarter (23%) it would translate to an extra $16 million in earnings. If the extra volume allows a two percentage point increase in margins we could see another $8 million. Hmmm....one thing I definitely didnt take into account was taxes. The above scenario would only give us an extra 2 cents since Q has a 35% tax rate. I guess I would need both a higher chipset ASP AND higher margins to get to my 3 extra cents in earnings. Not something I am willing to count on. Slacker