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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (66539)	5/13/2002 6:40:27 PM
From: NewKit	Respond to of 99280

If, if the QQQ puts stay by end of this week, will you change your position?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (66539)	5/13/2002 7:07:33 PM
From: Doug Shapiro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev does your Massacre require the Fed raising rates at the June FOMC meeting? If they skip June and wait until July it would provide a July massacre with time to crush all the puts for June. Skipping June would also tip their hand as it would confirm for some a fear of a second dip consumer recession. I am thinking outloud here.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (66539)	5/13/2002 8:41:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, Max pain for May and June have both been falling. May fell another notch and 31-32 now looks like a tossup. June fell from 38 to 34. If during the decline (in May) more June calls are bought, then it could fall another point or two, minimizing the rally in June. However if we bounce first here, the likely consequence is that June max pain goes up. All that said, if we get the 300 Naz points you are looking for, a rally back up to QQQ 31-32 in mid-June will be a big rally indeed. The way this yo-yo is going possibly we do see 300 down and back up. M

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (66539)	5/14/2002 1:50:05 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99280

"most see a low here in May and a very strong June." My most reliable measure of Market Sentiment involves taking the average of 3 surveys published in Barron's: Consensus Inc, Market Vane and the AAII Survey. The reading for last week dropped to 23.7% bullish, slightly lower than at the Fall '98 bottom. This implies that a large majority of Market Timers, active investors, newsletter writers, etc, expect lower prices in the weeks/months ahead. I'm not saying we can't decline in June, but merely that my most important gauge of Market Sentiment does not show bullishness, but a strong bearish majority.