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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (51387)	5/14/2002 12:17:26 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

NoVizh, saw the Pimco Gross interview on CNBC, took notes expected 3 year changes: emphasis of shift from private to govt power and response - deficit stimulus of the economy - reflation efforts will bring new inflation risk of significant US dollar decline - large federal deficits to return - global economic threats from currency problems long bond yield range estimated to be 5.0% to 6.5% - might get as high as 7.0% - higher price inflation expectations to be reflected - greater flight from US dollar and dollar-based assets move toward shorter maturity bonds - for protection from anticipated inflation - avg maturity will move from 7 yrs to 4.5 yrs safety to be found in govt mortgage backed securities - e.g. Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac - some safety with selective bigger stronger corporate bonds emerging market debt will be safest in Mexico - not Russia, Venezuela, Argentina surprising opportunities in corporate bonds in Telecom - e.g. AT&T, Sprint paying 8.5% to 9% my personal response is that his outlook is all good for GOLD and a tougher environment for high stock valuations heck, it is a tough environment for bonds (precisely why bullish for GOLD bullion and unhedged mining stocks) fwiw/ jim