Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (51392)	5/13/2002 10:10:36 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

From Michael Murphy's Latest Newletter... ----------------------- Dear Investor, Tuesday after the close, Cisco Systems announced earnings that beat the street number by more than 20%... ...and nearly QUADRUPLED its profits from the wash-out lows of the same quarter last year. And that, my friend, is a KEY SIGNAL of the technology recovery I've been writing to you about for some time now. A recovery that can make you a ton of money over the next six months to start. But only if you DON'T get scared off by the wailing hyenas that want you to believe that "tech is dead" -- gone forever. AND when the gains come, I'm looking for a flood of profits in a very short period of time. Let me explain why. Technically speaking, these stocks are way oversold. Perhaps you've seen "Bollinger Bands" discussed on CNBC -- it's simply a tool to show when stocks prices are way above, or below, the norm over time. I don't want to get too technical here, but today we're about 2.5 standard deviations below the average -- which is just about as oversold as stocks ever get. Heck, we didn't even see that mark in the plunge following September 11th. Yet the hyenas are running around telling you that tech stocks have nowhere to go but down! AMAZING! I don't need to name names. You know who they are. Their job is to panic you into selling at the bottom -- making themselves seem prophetic, so they sell more books or ink a new deal on Fox. PLEASE. If you hear or read something like "1,384 Enrons are rushing towards bankruptcy" or "NASDAQ 800," don't believe it. It's a sucker's game. Ignore the pleas to sell all your tech stocks. Ignore the LIES about some double-dip recession. Tech already bottomed. Now it's on the way back. Cisco is just one example. The GDP rose 5.8% in the first quarter -- tech played a big role. Spending on computers and peripherals, for example, rose at a 38.2% rate in real terms. But no one is telling you about good news like that. YOU KNOW WHY? They figure they can sell more books, more newsletters, more gold shares, more garbage...by scaring you instead. And human nature being what it is, the hyenas are often right. But I'm not stooping that low just to make a buck. I couldn't live with myself if I did. And there's always a chance -- if this message hits you at the right time, in the right mood -- that it will have an impact. And if it does, you'll buy the dominant technology companies now -- instead of KICKING yourself later. I'll be honest, investors are running scared. Short-term, this market may go nowhere. It could even get a little worse. But the technical and fundamental factors ALL point to sharply higher tech prices by the end of the year. I'd hate to see you miss out. Computer-related companies are already doing much better, and it's spreading to software as well. Cisco's rejuvenation bodes well for the Internet equipment group. And sector by sector, tech is growing. Slowly at first, then with a RUSH. And by the time most investors catch on, the insiders will have locked away the biggest gains -- again. AFTER ALL, most investors listen to the hyenas of the world. And those hyenas will climb back on the tech stock bandwagon after these stocks have DOUBLED and TRIPLED from here. They figure it's easier to pump tech stocks when they're already red-hot -- and dump them when folks are most easily excited. That's the game the hyenas play. Not me. Not ever. Maybe some folks don't want to hear this GREAT NEWS that starts with Cisco...they've already bought into the bad. But I'm hoping you're different. If you are, buy the very best technology companies you know now.

To: Voltaire who wrote (51392)	5/13/2002 11:55:07 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 65232

20 REASONS WHY GOLD WILL RISE 1. real rate of interest has been near zero since Oct 2001 - bond disincentive, no real return on investment - credit market is 5x larger than stock market - strong historical precedent for rise in gold 2. trade debt is approaching 5% of US GDP - symptom of overvalued dollar, lost export competition - strong historical precedent for decline in US dollar - extremely strong inverse correlation between gold and US$ 3. money supply increased 30% since Jan 2001, 85% rise since 1991 - monetary inflation plants seeds of eventual price inflation - printing of "blank check" dollars has met every world economic accident since the Asian Meltdown 4. rising world tension, desire for safer safe haven - threats of terrorism (conventional, biological, chemical, nuclear) - Middle East escalation, probably retaliation to US attacks on Al Qaeda 5. unwinding miner hedges, end of gold leasing, reducing supply - 1000 ton annual supply/demand shortfall - eventual central bank discontinued selling - lost control by Gold Cartel (central banks, bullion banks, hedged miners) - unwinding of largest naked short position in history (3 years supply) - end of trashing of South African Rand (world’s leading gold supplier) 6. dismantled mining supply apparatus, from systemic price below production - two years lag to bring new supply to market with higher prices - decade of neglect, lowest prices generally for commodities since 1929 7. no more Japanese savings guarantees - private citizen savings total $12 trillion - reports pose that Japanese could eventually own 70% of world gold 8. new federal deficits from inefficient wartime and security spending - increased supply of bonds leads to reluctance to hold additional amounts - corporate debt collapse leads to pressure on federal and household debts 9. trade tariff resumption discourages global trading village concept - tension leads to reduced trade, cutbacks in dollar exchange 10. accelerating worldwide currency turbulence - Japan, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Taiwan, PacRim, Turkey 11. world perception of American institutionalized dishonesty - scandals, accounting fraud, broker conflict of interest, exaggerated earnings - consequent resentment of American hegemony, lost trust 12. Arab & Islamic financial warfare countermeasures - reflow of petrodollars to Europe, Arab minting of new Islamic inscripted coins 13. end old economic cycle of prosperity, begin new cycle to correct excess - Kondratieff summer in 1999, followed by Kondratieff winter in early 2000’s - new down trend has begun with the US dollar 14. extreme rise in foreign holdings of US assets - lost control of our own economy (interest rate, value of dollar) - diversification away from American financial instruments - faulty USTBond deposit base supporting entire foreign economies 15. correction of US dollar usage as store of value - really a debt instrument in oversupply - its gold collateral is in process of depletion, perhaps 50% depleted - full circle coming toward currency backed by hard asset 16. rising costs from entire energy complex - political, legal, environmental obstacles to increased supply - obsolete natural gas infrastructure inhibits new supply - both gold and gas highly correlated with crude oil 17. USTBond yield must rise to meet other world treasury competition - other major currencies offer higher interest rates (dividend yield) - poor competitive position versus Euro (trade surplus, 15x gold backing) 18. steep yield curve forecasts price inflation within 3-5 years - refusal of long bond yield to come down 19. Bureau of International Settlements has targeted the US dollar for a corrective decline - Swiss desire to install Euro as new gold-backed currency - reversal of yen carry trade, reversal of gold carry trade - 10 years of carry trade have provided foreigners with necessary dollars - previous target was the Soviet Union 20. Sept 11th marks the turning point for US dollar - 1989 presaged a rise in the dollar to stretched highs with fall of Berlin Wall - 2001 presaged a correction after blowoff top following World Trade Center attack damn, Volt this is way too deep for your shallow waters the only response to strong argument is pithy humor keep thinking MINDSET and TIME CAPSULE nonsense every simpleton needs a mantra / JW SBG