Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CYBERKEN who wrote (9238)	5/14/2002 7:15:27 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

<<... are indicative of the trend>> Perhaps. I exited the biotech (BT) sector ~2 years ago (purely lucky timing and I still own some medical device companies) and I assume you're still significantly invested in it. As someone looking in from the outside, I feel your post has a tone of wishful thinking. This is not a criticism but rather an observation of an expected outlook from a representative investor of a devastated sector. There was a biotech bubble and blow-off in the early 90s: very roughly speaking, a 2 year spike was followed by a three year crash-then-painfully-slow recovery. The current scenario started in ~early 1998, peaked in 2000 (a 2 year spike) and, if the previous pattern is repeated, won't begin a gradual recovery until next year. And the damage is much worse this time...potentially producing investors who are even more gun-shy then they were after the debacle a decade ago. BTs are also being undone by a large number of NDA debacles; the idea that the predominant perception of the BT sector by the investing public of a circus side show, all smoke-and mirrors, is more than probable. As of the close last Friday, the VD portfolio was down almost 85% YTD. When this happens to the best stocks of a sector (as the portfolio's choices invariably are), then it takes a very long time to dispel the fear this sort performance engenders. The recovery will come but, IMO, your patience will be severely tested.