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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3113)	5/13/2002 11:21:11 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Hi Don, I think since Amat is late in the cycle to report - this is a plus.As the slow return to healthy markets the more it is delayed the better the orders will be. I think the short list of companies announcing Capex over 1 billion indicates a transition from leaders to laggards "also ordering" not yet occurring.I think it will occur but the laggards must be forced by lowering prices - squeezing the margins - if any out there. Perhaps as in Hynix's case,stopping the hemoraging is the driving force. I think the good news may well create a pop - much like today on anemic volume. As may and June progress doubters will bring a stain on the recovery.Second guessing - will undermine the "recovery". June will be hot steamy and second guessing - July 1-10 will be"get it over already" and then better earnings will come forth. A slow noninflationary recovery is exactly what the fed has engineered.It will happen but IT WILL TAKE TIME. The gogo daytraders/scalpers are still in denial - this market will revert back to the slower days. NOT BAD and in fact it is almost IDEAL for investors. The BIG question is how many investors are out there and what perecnt of them are better called speculators? A hard question to answer - but then investors don't really care. It is after all the speculators that are in a hurry.JMHO Bob

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3113)	5/14/2002 12:19:58 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95530

I think AMAT will selloff after the earnings report, but I believe that the market will hold near the level of last Tuesday. Last Wednesday and today were strong. I think this is a reaction to an oversold situation. The strong AMAT report and the improving BTB will not produce a big rally, but will add support to the recent intermediate bottom.