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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kip518 who wrote (36064)	5/14/2002 11:08:57 AM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 52237

I've been playing with XAU and Rydex XAU funds to see if they can signal a top (15-20% pullback) but am not sure if I've come up with anything. Here are the numbers, per J.T.'s MITA posts: May 22, 2001: XAU peaks at 67, Rydex XAU fund peaks at $78 million in assets. September 20-24: XAU peaks at 60, Rydex XAU fund peaks at $91 million. February 8: XAU peaks at 70, Rydex XAU fund peaks at $90 million. As of last night, the XAU was at 80, and Rydex XAU fund was at $100 million: Message 17463613 Two observations: on an NAV basis, we seem to be just under the February peak. And September was a bearish divergence in that the Rydex XAU fund hit a higher high, but the XAU did not (a lot of dumb money chasing the PMs). I guess the good news is we don't have the same divergence now: XAU was up 14% since the February peak, but the Rydex XAU fund assets were only up 11%. That's a slight bullish divergence, but not as pronounced as the February top, where the XAU was up 16% from the September top, but Rydex XAU assets were down 1% during that time.