Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (18968)	5/14/2002 5:32:07 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

See, first of all, Im ready to learn/change my mind/adjust. "Facts, just the facts". as far as possible. >>Ordinarily there is a delicate equilibrium. << ordinarily, yes, and I dont know if it's delicate, but I guess we're talking shifts, that are imperceptible within our normal attention span. >>What do you see that will change the equilibrium? << I still owe you my impression of the situation, but if one looks at dy / dx, with dy being J6P's well being, there's following candidates for dx: a) interest rate hike b) unemployment ... both of them causing c) real estate "adjustment" d) raise in credit/mtg defaults ... both of them causing e) J6P adjusting his/her spending habits, ...causing f) contraction in consumer spending, aka GNP I have not spent a word on government deficits at the moment. Just a scenario - dont disect it now, CB Turning it around, one could expect/hope a) no interest hikes and b) employment rate steady/increasing, meaning... c) J6P did his part of the job, d) government takes up the slack with defence (dont make me laugh) spending ...but who'll finance the government deficit (future generations? dont make me laugh - from 20th-century European)