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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (67294)	5/14/2002 11:42:09 PM
From: Pink Minion	Respond to of 99280

Do you really think More's law can hold up for 15 more years. WOW Moore's Law for silicon, then there will be another law for its replacement. All technology has some form of this Law. Moore's Law basically says supply doubles every 18 months. Microsoft has the same law in bloatware I believe.

To: mishedlo who wrote (67294)	5/15/2002 1:00:19 AM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

<Moore's law> Mish, Up until the present the only performance measurement that mattered for semiconductors has been speed. As the number of transitors availble on a chip increased they were all put to work making the chip fast. There will be multiple dimensions of perfmance that matters going forward. There will still the the make it as fast as possible crowd (fifteen more years of Moore's law means that these chips will have 10 Billion transistors). However, size, heat, power and integration will all become more important. As chips get put into more and more things the need more smaller and smaller chips will increase. Managing heat also becomes an issue. You cannot put a chip into every cardboard box if the cardboard catches fire. Integration will be a big consumer of transistors. Already there are chips with a microprocessor, an ethernet MAC, a security processor and a video processor all on the same silicon real estate. More and more transistors are going towards on chip memory and on-chip buses. How about one 'CPU' that has 1,000 processors. When you start to combine these different performance axis you can use up a heck of a lot of transistors. The other thing to keep in mind is that we have become very adept at gathering information and getting it to the place we need it to be. We have barely begun the process of understanding and interpreting that information. We know more but we are not neccisarily smarter. We need to make information visual and interactive. This should be easy for a chartist to understand. I see no reason why the kind of quick visual analysis done by traders cannot be applied to most parts of business. The algorithms for finding and presenting patters will use up a lot of transistors as well. Paul