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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dealer who wrote (51458)	5/14/2002 11:38:06 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

BOTTOM BEHIND By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) I got what I was asking for today and am very pleased with what I saw. Across the board, all the readings, the technicals and the patterns, were in line with my ideal scenario. We had a huge gap-up this morning following up on yesterday’s rally. The market marked time most of the day, firmed up in mid-afternoon, pulled back with about 35-40 minutes, and then firmed up again near the close. There was a ton of short-covering near the end of the day, particularly after Brocade’s earnings were accidentally leaked, and stocks like Emulex, QLogic and the other “adrenaline” stocks exploded, spiking up in the last few minutes. The market closed going away, above key resistance levels and completed head-and-shoulder bottom patterns on the Nasdaq 100 as well as the S&P 500 by breaking across the 1290-95 zone on the NDX and 1090 on the S&P 500. The declining tops lines are right around present levels, and we’re about to break them as well, so additional upside tomorrow would be required to get a confirmation of the break of the declining trend lines going back to early March. But we’re looking real good, in terms of probably having put in an intermediate bottom here, and I’m obviously very pleased with that! Confirming that were the overall technicals today with 2235 advancers and only 980 decliners on New York, and 2438 up and only 1100 down on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was very strong on New York with a nearly 5-1 ratio. Total volume was about 1.5 billion. On Nasdaq, because Worldcom traded upwards of 600 million shares, a new all-time record, volume was very heavy, with more than 2.6 billion shares traded there. Up/down volume was 1 2/3 billion up and 800 million down, more than 2-1 positive, but it would have been more like 10 to 1 because more than 640 million of that down volume was in Worldcom. So there’s a very strong likelihood that we’ve now put in an important short-term and probably intermediate low here. I expect that the markets can extend themselves. My next targets short-term would be the NDX 1330 area and then 1355-60. Beyond that we have a prior gap and additional price resistance in the high 1300s. Immediate overhead resistance on the S&P 500 would be 1100, 1110 and then we have the very big overhead resistance at 1130. On my personal board today, every stock was up, most of them huge. QLogic was up 4.14, Genesis up 4.12, Veritas up 3.50, Nvidia 3.36, Mercury Interactive 3.10, Emulex 3.62 and many others up between 1 and 3 points. Even the low-priced stocks today firmed up. It was a stellar day –- as good as it gets. You’ve heard me say that before, only this time it was even a shade better than that. It’s likely that if AMAT’s earnings are good tonight and with Brocade trading up another point in the after-market, the market will gap up a little bit more tomorrow. But we’re going to get frothy and overbought very quickly, so be careful out there. Good trading! Harry

To: Dealer who wrote (51458)	5/14/2002 11:45:38 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

the issue with techs is not their product values it is with profitability and earnings growth check overcapacity check excess debt check competition check poor dollar competitive pricing check imminent rising interest rates check the downtrend in dollar currency check ........ nickel, zinc, copper, silver were all critical to our economy thru the 1990's that didnt stop their value from dropping 40-50% fiberoptic is a true wonder of the world it is critical to our economy and telecommunication but with the buildout perhaps all set for a few more years, do you want to buy any of the 16 fiberopts out there fighting for the 7 chairs ??? look for the areas of neglect throughout the entire 1990's energy and precious metals this country must develop and produce more oil and gas North America can be further exploited meanwhile, which techs are people wasting their time with? Cisco is a poster child now in my book people continue to chase it, probably on this thread also 2% growth, losses last year spun into stated profits, criminal $2B writeoff of non-obsolete products last year to fortify this year earnings reports, vastly exaggerated and deceptive growth for years shall I go on? but CSCO goes from 13+ to 16+ leading the moronic charge whatever people lose on CSCO, they deserve / jim

To: Dealer who wrote (51458)	5/15/2002 11:07:48 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

aint going anywhere without bread either but check the downtrend in grain prices it is all about oversupply and earnings growth how many computer networking companies are out there? or fiberoptic makers, or telecommers, or chipmakers? or computer makers, or component makers? are their margins expanding? how is pricing power? how about Asian price competition? are sales growing? are businesses buying new equipment yet? is new competition arriving to grab our customers? is debt becoming a ton of bricks problem? are our bond yields rising to attract new capital? are interest rates domestically on the rise? these are the key questions and not: are these products still important? HP-Compaq said new business investment continues to suck but the market rallies anyway yday credit card driven retail sales rose nicely the day before yday the market rallied on Cisco deception this all seems too dangerous for a little investor / jim