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Strategies & Market Trends : Coming Financial Collapse Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (700)	5/15/2002 5:20:13 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 974

stratfor.com New Problems for Washington's South Asia Envoy 13 May 2002 Washington is dispatching Christina Rocca, the assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, to India May 14, where she reportedly will try to persuade New Delhi to reduce tensions along the border with Pakistan. Islamabad has used these tensions as an excuse for sluggish participation in joint operations with U.S. forces along the Afghan border. For Washington, Islamabad's delays could undermine the hunt for al Qaeda in the nearly unregulated tribal areas of northwest Pakistan. U.S. and British forces are encountering fewer signs of al Qaeda or former Taliban presence on the Afghan side of the border. Washington suspects hundreds of fighters are taking refuge and regrouping in Pakistan's border regions and it wants Islamabad to participate in military sweeps of the area. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has hesitated to tackle the tribal areas, concerned about potential backlash from Islamic leaders, militant groups and sympathizers in the military and intelligence service. The latest bombing in Karachi was just another example of militants' ability to strike throughout Pakistan, spreading a destabilizing influence. Pakistan's delays and the dearth of al Qaeda and Taliban fighters in Afghanistan are causing a new problem for Washington: Its allies are losing motivation for continuing the search along the Afghan-Pakistani border. There are growing signs of fatigue with the war in Afghanistan in London and Ottowa, so Washington needs to move quickly to regain the initiative and retain allies' support and participation. Rocca's trip to India, then, is an attempt to accelerate New Delhi's reduction of forces along the Pakistani border -- thereby removing one of Islamabad's main reasons for inaction. Sources suggest that India's military already is preparing a phased withdrawal for sometime in July, but that could prove too late for Washington. If India pulls back sooner, Musharraf would have one less excuse to delay operations in the tribal areas and other U.S. allies would be less likely to fall away. Further, Musharraf may even use Washington's intervention on Islamabad's behalf as proof of his own international influence -- strengthening his hand domestically and reducing the potential backlash he fears operations in the tribal areas would generate. Yet the militants themselves remain a wildcard. As they demonstrated in Karachi, they have the ability to cause problems for Musharraf far from the Afghan border. They could quickly reverse any lessening of Pakistani-Indian tensions by launching a major attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir. This easily could trigger a higher-level Indian response -- and undermine Washington's delicate balance between long-term ties with New Delhi and its near-term need for Islamabad. As the pressure rises in Pakistan's tribal areas, Islamic militants and their supporters will be compelled to take action. They already have threatened to treat Pakistani forces taking part in local operations exactly as they would U.S. forces. Striking out elsewhere in Pakistan or raiding Indian-controlled Kashmir could quickly derail Washington's plans for joint anti-terrorism operations with Pakistan. That would give Washington with a difficult choice: Go it alone or else leave the border region a safe haven for al Qaeda and its sympathizers.