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Strategies & Market Trends : Coming Financial Collapse Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (702)	5/15/2002 5:24:42 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 974

siliconinvestor.com Afghanistan: Locust Swarms Raise Concerns of Unrest 13 May 2002 United Nations officials say that, after decades of war and several recent earthquakes, Afghanistan's crops are now being threatened by swarms of locusts. The locusts present a real threat to Afghanistan, where a food crisis will generate fear and resentment that could be directed against the government of interim leader Hamid Karzai -- or its sponsor, the United States. It also opens the door for a hearts-and-minds campaign by whatever foreign power that can deliver needed supplies and wants to increase its influence in Afghanistan. Infestations of Moroccan locusts (Dociostaurus maroccanus) have been reported since March in nine northern provinces that serve as the breadbasket of Afghanistan. The most seriously affected provinces are Samangan, Kunduz and Baghlan. U.N. officials characterize the infestation as the worst in 30 years, with two-thirds of the summer crop -- which is mainly wheat -- under threat. The insects usually confine themselves to desert land near the border with Uzbekistan, but the dry weather at the start of the year prompted them to migrate farther south in search of food. To make matters worse, farmers cultivated only half their usual amount of land this year. Because the locust population is so large this spring, traditional prevention measures -- such as digging trenches to trap the young insects -- apparently are not enough. The U.N. has shipped in pesticides, 1,300 backpack sprayers and several large spraying rigs on pickups to help fight the infestation. The exact extent of devastation is unclear, but a crippled harvest appears likely, and decreased local food production will have a number of political consequences. Because emergency aid generally follows a standard progression -- from initial food shipments meant to ward off immediate starvation to the harder work of improving local agricultural techniques -- international aid donors such as Catholic Relief Services, Refugees International and Save the Children will need to amend their program schedules and stay longer in Afghanistan. The true work of agricultural development will not be possible in Afghanistan until the danger of starvation has passed and civilians are fed. The locust infestation will therefore postpone development schedules -- and lengthen the need for Western involvement -- by a least a growing season. Meanwhile, lower food production is likely to stir resentment and anger at the grassroots level. There is a very real danger that militant forces could harness this resentment, redirect it toward Karzai or the United States and challenge the regime in Kabul. The months until the autumn harvest will provide ample opportunity for an alert power like India, Iran, Pakistan or the United States to increase its influence in Afghanistan. The distribution of food aid can win allies at the grassroots level. Alternatively, foreign powers could give that aid to local or regional warlords, allowing them to strengthen their particular bases of support within Afghanistan while still lashing them more tightly to a state sponsor.