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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjstingray who wrote (434)	5/16/2002 6:09:23 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

looks like a melt up is in order to take out all the shorts before we crash...

To: jjstingray who wrote (434)	5/16/2002 6:31:40 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

jj, the fact that the SPX has had an incredibly hard time going above 1100 should be telling us something. The last time we dropped in Feb, the SPX ran from 1074-1173 (9%) and the COMP ran 15% (1696-1947) in early March. This time the SPX has gone 5% (1048-1103) and the COMP has gone 13% (1560-1759). The SPX is pretty weak this time. We may be seeing some rotation into tech's from non-tech, but I doubt it. I believe the SPX is probably better indicating the current market sentiment than the COMP. jj, I'm not real concerned about things right now, as I see 1759 as a blow-off top and 1832 as the maximum upside potential on this move. As such, I'm not too worried about being a bit negative on this run up. Sure, I'm missing out on some opportunities, but I'm not losing sleep. I believe we had some unique situations this week that made it difficult for the mm's to drop too much. The gap at 1696 had to hold, or Max Pain would fail. They had to gap over 1696 in order to get to Max Pain. It was a combination of several things that made all of this possible. There was no great change in the economy, fundamentals, or the political situation that caused the run from 1600-1759. It was just plain manipulation on top of an extremely oversold situation. Anyway, I wouldn't necessarily consider myself bearish. I'm looking at all aspects of the market and recognizing there are some very positive charts out there as well. However, I must also temper those thoughts with the realization that this week is not a good week to judge those things by. Topping characteristics include decreasing volume, like this: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G Contracting highs and increasing lows while prices increase also are a characteristic of a top. We could talk about the VIX, but that drops when the market drops after we have these tops, so why make a big deal out of it: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G VXN reminds me of the April top: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G