Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (8564)	5/16/2002 10:49:03 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Respond to of 10293

My buy rec. of CTXS is not based on any one particular product. There is a bit more to it. I think that just about any beaten-down software company (except the most odious dot-com garbage) can be bought down here and you are going to earn some serious loot over the next few months. In addition to CTXS, I think that PMTC and SEBL should also be bought heavy down here. These companies have weathered the storm well and have real businesses that are ready to turn around. CTXS, for example, has been busy switching to a much more predictable and profitable mix which emphasizes ongoing subscriptions rather than depending on closing a few big deals every quarter. I believe that these companies are being traded as if they're going out of business when nothing could be further from the truth. In particular, I think CTXS and PMTC are grossly undervalued. Both have clean accounting, good product/customer mix, real revenues and earnings, and are about to pull out of the bottom of their cycles. All of these stocks are at muti-year lows, and the analysts have finished a long sting of downgrades/estimate cuts. All of these stocks have been blown out by every imaginable growth/tech fund out there. Ask yourself this...who is left to sell any more CTXS, SEBL or PMTC? Finally, something interesting caught my eye. CTXS stock reacted positively to good news today (a new Microssoft licensing agreement), but in a reasonable, almost muted, fashion (the stock was up about a buck). During the bubble, the stock would have been halted and opened up 10 or 15, during the downslope of the bear market, the stock would've poked its head up and then sold off. Now we just have hesitant buying coming off lows in the NASDAQ not seen since the LTCM fiasco in '98. It's almost as if everyone is waiting for everyone else to start buying because they've heard that tech is so toxic for so long now, that they simply can't believe the stock will go up. I don't think we are going back to bubble highs, and I honestly don't know if the secular bear market has come to an end...but for the short to intermediate term, tech is showing signs of life, and it is deeply oversold. I think that CTXS trades north of 20 and PMTC trades north of 10. SEBL is a bit harder to game because it's far greater market cap...but I wouldn't be surprised to see 30-35 by this summer. Let me put it this way, I've been doing a massive amount of short covering, and I'm taking big swings at these stocks. I don't think you get very many trading opportunities like this.