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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kanuti who wrote (68378)	5/16/2002 7:40:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Could you please explain how the whole world has changed in the past 7 days from when you stated "Wednesday ramp was a gift and longs should have gotten out" to today's statement "I remain unconvinced that we are not headed UP for 1.5 months or better". What has changed is what has happened. Turnips reserve the right to change their minds frequently (and they do). Well Radishes reserve the same right. This expiry has been unlike others in the past 5 months. We did not sell off into this one (so far anyway). I doubt anyone shorting my call (if anyone did) has been hurt by it too much as of the close today. But the close today bothers me. The buildup in puts in June continues bothers me. The rising MAY max pain of close to $1 the past few days bothers me. There are lots of things that bother me that did not bother me a few days ago. Perhaps I am being overly cautious, but I am now open to the possibility that (for whatever reason) the dip is being consitently bought as opposed to the top biing sold as it was not too long ago. It continued today. TRINQ is another thing that bothers me. It has suggested buying for days now. Perhaps at tops that is the way it is supposed to look. BUT... this does not seem like a top (except for semi's and that I can not explain). We are hugely overbought now on many charts but we were oversold for months. We can be overbought for months as well. A nice big smackdown tomorrow might get me to change my mind, and perhaps I am being whipsawed (just like HAL), but perhaps caution from the bears is the best policy now. Note: I always had a June rally in the cards. Well here we are, about two weeks away (but pointing UP not down). One has to stop and reflect upon what that means. And I AM NOT COMFORTABLE in a call for further May down action in light of today's performance. The other possibility (and I did mention it as an alternate scenario earlier), is that we just slowly chop around here for a couple months (destroying both puts and calls) until bears or bulls give up on some news related event or stats. Again that is cause for caution and perhaps NOTHING significant happens until July. Since Options Expiry scenario did not play out to my script, I have concerns about the upcoming Nasacre. Note that Zeev kept calling for a Spring rally that never happened. Perhaps it is about to. M