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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: kanuti who wrote (68400)5/16/2002 9:15:25 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 99280
 
Today being neither up or down, and pinned exactly at max pain or just above, is a BULL pattern IMO(by my latest theory anyway) and one I did not comment on.

What happened is the criminals got us EXACTLY to where they wanted us, and PINNED us right there, and so far anyway made it stick.

This happened in Nov and Dec if I am not mistaken (and we rallied after each). I had not completly formalized my Max Pain theories at that point so I only believe this is what happened (I can not verify with accuracy my hypothesis). I do recall a drop to max pain in Nov (that I am positive of), pinned there in NOV (one that did NOT drop further than Pain during expiry week) then an explosive rally. December I am uncertain of.

This expiry was differnent in that it was a rise, but a rise that took us ABOVE max pain, and STUCK(so far anyway) AFTER WEDNESDAY REVERSAL DAY. Not sure exactly what to make of it. I will have to add whatever happens after this expiry to my mental collection of "Max Pains what to expect".

Look at S&P.

Totally criminal IMHO, pinned exactly at 1100 all day.
Of course that drops the VIX, screwing the value of all the other options as well. Today was so obvious it stinks, but they do not care.

More signs of caution UNLESS we reverse down tomorrow. In which case the bearish drop for 2 more weeks is likely.

M



To: kanuti who wrote (68400)5/16/2002 9:53:29 PM
From: Robert New  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99280
 
>>>>Personally I cannot find anything that forecasts a sustained rally.>>>

Yep and thats what is often said at bottoms. I went long today and tonight as well after that b2b number. Cant fight the tide...I think a lot of shorts are going to be caught at lower levels. COT has been covering as well on the Naz as ive been posting for the past couple of weeks....time to fade the crowd.