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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (63853)	5/16/2002 9:45:43 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

It's a sine wave, with different amplitude each cycle. I'd guess we don't take out the previous cycle's peak bookings numbers, till 2 cycle-peaks from now. That is, the upcycle we are in, will peak at a bookings number less than the last peak, and we'll have to wait till the one after that. We seem to take 2 years from trough-to-trough (or peak-to-peak), so that indicates the next peak will be in 2003, and the one after that (when we finally take out the Bubble bookings numbers) will be in 2005. Stock price may follow that pattern, too.