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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (51580)	5/16/2002 11:16:55 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

methinks Coxe has it right on short-duration leaders but he might be grossly underestimating the effects of an ultra-strong dollar and artificially low interest rates and still high stock valuations not to mention the vast amounts of TBonds held by foreigners this is the end of three roads for paper financial assets I think: bonds will struggle as rates rise the stock market will struggle both with rising rates and correcting dollar (downward) the dollar itself I dont mean death, but I do mean mayhem, crises we will have new stock leadership for sure earnings for S&P reflect a 2.5% dividend yield implied (from 40 PE ratio) so right now the longbond delivers twice the return meanwhile, as rates rise, bonds will suffer so stocks are not as good as bonds and bonds will suffer where is a mother to invest GOLD, SILVER, OIL, METHANE GAS / jim