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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (63854)	5/16/2002 10:08:41 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OK Jacob, what are the magic numbers to watch for in capex/sales and fab capacity utilization as the signs of the top? And while you're at it, pray tell what are the ratios to watch as signs of the BOTTOM? And if such great indicators exist, then why do we need to be concerned with "valuation". Don't you believe the market is fairly efficient?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (63854)	5/16/2002 11:41:50 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, [edit: I fixed the url] a new chart of AMAT monthly closing price vs yoy monthly semiconductor sales and vs yoy monthly SEMI orders [both in %] suite101.com You will notice that in 1997 all three peaked about the same time, give or take a month. In late 1999 the SEMI yoy % peaked but price kept going and more than doubled [the Nasdaq exuberance]. I would expect behavior like in 1997 this time around. You know that analysts are fond of yoy comparisons. Notice that the latest comparison for SEMI orders is positive % now while chip sales are still negative. Gottfried