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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: jjstingray who wrote (459)5/16/2002 11:40:18 PM
From: Jeff  Respond to of 30712
 
the way i see it......two prior huge bubble markets in history both gave back ALL the gains from the bubble...

dow took 3 years to give it back..

nikkei took 12 years....

nasdaq is in year 2 and 2 months....

and so far nasdaq is following the dow collapse not the nikkei....

nasdaq still has 700 to 900 pts to give back to retrace its entire bubble....

now i see three choices here....

1) nasdaq breaks the pattern of bubble markets giving it all back....and we go on from here..

2) nasdaq is following the dow pattern.....so in the next 10 months or so....nasdaq retraces those last 700 to 900 pts...

3)nasdaq keeps ramping from here.....breaks out of the pattern of lower highs never being broken....but stalls out and we turn into a nikkei pattern and long holders make no money for another decade...

history does repeat itself....if it does...take your choice of 2 or 3...

if it is "different" this time like so many believe....take door number 1.....<g>



To: jjstingray who wrote (459)5/17/2002 6:49:27 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Respond to of 30712
 
JJ: RE: "I don't know Jeff, this is starting to feel like the November through December time frame."

Yes, this options expiration has a twist to it. You have a countertrend rally of sorts combined with options expiration. The rally part has not been this last gap up in my mind. That was not surprising to me. What has surprised me thus far is the strength after the gap up, i.e., the moves toward the downtrend line. This is not what I had mapped out.