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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (39526)	5/17/2002 1:03:36 AM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I knew it. Allan's testy, so I checked the scores. The Red Sox got shut out. Now it all makes sense. <g> My prediction, by the way: The futures may open up at a new high. Or, the trade gap numbers in the morning might kill this enthusiasm. Or everyone might downgrade Dell and the semis based on their numbers (recall the same thing happening to AMAT this week) and the futures go down. Or news comes out. Or max pain rules the day and we go down. Or delta hedging rules the day and we fly sooooo high. Or. Or. Or. There, I think I've covered it. the freep, master of scenarios but hey, it's a living.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (39526)	5/17/2002 7:49:21 AM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I probably won't post until either 1340 or 1280 is hit tomorrow. Good. That way you'll have time to PM me about your sailboat... <g> I tried to take your mind off of this silly market, but you didn't take me up on it... Just kiddin. Freeps probably right, it's the Redsox... They'd get me frustrated too if I was a fan. I was wondering if it ever seems that expiration week is a poor time to buy calls and puts for a swing trade. If games are being played to keep prices in a certain range (close to max pain) then I wonder if your premium begins to dwindle due to a lower implied volatility. If huge moves don't happen within days to expiry, both puts and calls probably decrease in value. Especially if you bought them during a period of hi-V. Time decay eats up small profit quickly on jello days. AMAT's news was squashed by intentional downgrades. This prevented the pop that many expected. Possibly helped prevent a huge options price swing due to IV. I suspect that Dell's news might provide nothing more than a large pop in the morning followed by profit taking or some other excuse to bring it back down to the range. I wish I had a link to where I could see charts of Implied Volatility over periods of time to see if it does consistantly dip near expiry... ...just ramblin'. I'll shut up now. -HumilityHotelBellhop