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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (68509)	5/17/2002 5:44:51 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

<<Zeev: Excellent list of Vaderian targets>> i typed this because i didn't know what it meant, but now the light bulb clicks, it's Vaderian as in Dartherian.

To: Earlie who wrote (68509)	5/17/2002 9:07:28 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Come on, Early, you don't play that "looking back" PE thing. The market will try and estimate the peak earnings on this cycle, for AMAT, I have no more than $1.75 on a annual basis (and that is rich) and thus my peak for AMAT on this cycle is $35/share. Yet, short term, I think we are pretty close to a local top here and I agree with you about the next two weeks seeing a dearth in good news, and actual bad news creeping in. I added to that list of potential shorts QCOM just under $32 (and suggest that those that got on have a hard stop at $34.75 or so) and VTSS at $6.65 (stop should be at $7.5). By this time next month, the outsized BTB of 1.20 (which was not a surprise) will drop down (temporarily IMTO) to the 1.12/1.15, and send shivers in the sector, IMTO, but that is a good month away. These shivers might create the conditions for a real and solid advance from what I expect to see as late June lows under 1500. Zeev

To: Earlie who wrote (68509)	5/17/2002 9:11:43 AM
From: vampire	Respond to of 99280

that's what i'm waiting for - The June Warnings: Message 17478526 on the other hand, I hope you're kidding about AMAT's p/e (odd you would say that as I thought you were a fairly knowledgeable dude) Message 17480080

To: Earlie who wrote (68509)	5/19/2002 3:59:26 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99280

Earlie, I noted on another thread that you suggested that in spite of "bad news" the market was able to "rise" last week, and thus you expect it to hold or rise some more before it turns. Frankly, I disagree with your perception, yes the market rose on the "false" good news of CSCO (magic of accounting, when you know everything is going to be bad, you take $2.5 B in write down, as a "non operational" "one time loss", and then, when you need these inventories, reduce your cost of goods drastically to engineer an "advance" in earning, shame, but we all knew it when they did it). However, when "real good news came in (AMATs BTB at 1.5 and the semi-equip BTB at 1.20), the market did absolutely nothing. To me that indicates the topping action is almost complete and you going out for another two weeks of "hibernation" may be "premature" (g). Zeev