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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tyc:> who wrote (2801)5/17/2002 10:46:57 AM
From: nickel61  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3558
 
Basic to understanding Barrick's hedges or anyone's for that matter is to understand that the "hedge" is created by a short sale. They borrow gold and sell it into the spot market and with the proceeds from that sale they then invest in the bond portfolio. It is the computer modeling of the future interest rates they will recieve on this money that creates the "higher" price, or contango. This is their projection as to how much the short sale proceeds will earn in interest till the contract is closed by Barrick returning the gold from their future production and repaying the loan(to the bullion bank/central bank. Without the short sale they would have no proceeds to invest. Do you agree with me up to this point?



To: tyc:> who wrote (2801)5/17/2002 10:55:39 AM
From: nickel61  Respond to of 3558
 
It is critical for all shareholders to understand that the hedges are created by Barrick going short gold by borrowing it from a bullion bank who in turn borrows it from a central bank. Barrick then sells this borrowed gold in the market at spot(some would argue therebye increasing the supply of gold in the spot market and depressing the gold price somewhat) and then has a contractual obligation to return an amount of gold equal to what they borrowed plus a lease rate factor (1% or 2%/year) to the bullion bank/central bank when they want it back. So a short gold position is established with every hedge that Barrick puts in place. A short like any other that must be repaid by delivering when the lender wants it back. The cost of providing that gold in the future to repay the short loan is an obligation that will have a cost even if only an opportunity cost and that is what the significance of the future market price of gold is. That is the revenue that Barrick will forego when it delivers the shorted gold.

Now you were complaining about everyone on this thread having a closed mind. You wouldn't want to be acused of that yourself would you, so follow the explanation and ask questions if you don't understand something.



To: tyc:> who wrote (2801)5/17/2002 12:34:00 PM
From: goldsheet  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3558
 
Agreed. A forward sale locks in the price of a commodity at a fixed price at a fixed point in time. Unless you are a speculator and have to go to the market to close the contract, the market price is a moot point. As a producer, with cash costs well below the forward price, you have already done the IRR calculation with known numbers, making a forward sale more like insurance than a gamble.