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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Voltaire who wrote (51617)5/17/2002 1:58:35 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 65232
 
currency cash flow is bigger than bonds
bond cash flow is bigger than stocks

currency is $22 trillion annually
and currency cash flow is trending heavily out of dollars

you may be right
perhaps $22,000 billion cash flow is meaningless
/ jim

p.s. go Andruw



To: Voltaire who wrote (51617)5/17/2002 2:29:07 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
seriously, Volty... cash flow is looking good for stocks
but it is difficult to tell how prominent hedge fund activity is
yesterday Interest Rate Observer Jim Grant pointed out that he saw evidence of big hedge fund participation
and not as much mutual fund participation as would be healthy for confirming the commitment of new positions

with the dollar sliding still, it is now lower than it was BEFORE the stock rally began two weeks ago
US stocks could continue to rally some more
but the currency market can totally trump the stock runup

the US artificially low 3-mo TBill yield rate is now hurting the dollar
currency traders are leaving the dollar and its low rate
some are coming in for buying stocks, to be sure

but one is a lion, the other a damaged kitty cat
lions eat kitties, even when they are healthy
$22 trillion is a lot of tidal movement away from the shore
some would say this is but a wall of worry
maybe
but I tend to think we are "descending a wall of hope" now
/ jim



To: Voltaire who wrote (51617)5/17/2002 5:55:27 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
Dell switches may threaten competitors

Fri May 17,12:26 AM ET

Tiffany Kary CNET News.com

Dell Computer is about to introduce three data switches to compete with networking gear makers like 3Com and Cisco (news - web sites) Systems. Analysts are saying the move will eat away at the computer maker's already downtrodden competitors.

Dell has been diversifying into the storage and server markets, along with a recent move into the apparel market, offering T-shirts and other products to complement its popular TV commercials featuring "dude" Steven. Dell has also been inching its way into the market for data switches, competing with networking gear makers like Cisco, 3Com and Nortel (news - web sites) Networks.

Three new switches, called the PowerConnect 5224, 3248 and 3048, are slated to be released by the end of July, upping the ante with competitors in the market for low-end data switches aimed at small and medium-sized businesses.

Analysts say the company can succeed in a tight market thanks to two factors: incredibly low prices and a relationship with customers that will allow it to bypass resellers. Though Dell's strategy in switches echoes its cost cutting in the computer market, a price war isn't likely to ensue, analysts say.

Dell first entered the market in October with four switches; it expanded with two more switches in February. The networking equipment market wasn't a hospitable place then, and it isn't improving. Cisco, a bellwether in the sector, recently reported better-than-expected quarterly results, spurring a brief rally in some networking equipment stocks, but most analysts said the enthusiasm was unwarranted.

"Cisco said things are looking up, and everyone agreed--at least for one day. If only WorldCom and its colleagues would stop depressing us, maybe we could join the Cisco crew in their overall optimism," wrote Merrill Lynch analyst Tom Astle in a recent report.

But Dell is determined to take a bite out of the market with three switches aimed at what's known as the Ethernet Layer 2 market. It's the largest market for networking switches, which control the forwarding and filtering of data. Principal players are Cisco, with approximately 70 percent market share; 3Com, with 6 percent market share; and Nortel, with 5 percent market share, according to statistics from equity research firm Credit Lyonnais Securities.

Analysts say other networking equipment makers will suffer as Dell intensifies its push into the market.

"Dell's expanding product offering will likely begin to eat away at the low-end switch market competitors," Credit Lyonnais Securities analyst Gabriel Lowy said in a recent research note.

"The competition is pretty tight. It's about just a few dollars here and there," said analyst Zeus Kerravala at research firm The Yankee Group.

Dell's strategy is to squeeze out its competitors by offering low prices, analysts say. For example, one of the switches to be released in July, the PowerConnect 5224, will include 24 Gigabit Ethernet ports at approximately $100 a port. The average cost overall in the market is about $300 to $500 per port, according to Lowy.

"With Dell and switches it's about commoditizing the market, just like they did with PCs," Kerravala said. "The game is about being cheaper than the other guy, and Dell is the cheapest brand on the street." Dell took the PC market by storm by undercutting competitors and implementing a price war.

Kerravala said Dell can offer cheaper switches by manufacturing them overseas in Taiwan. Dell spokeswoman Michelle Mosmeyer confirmed that overseas manufacturing helps, but said the main way Dell can compete with the incumbents is by bypassing the sales channel and selling directly to customers.

"Our leading position in servers and desktops helps us," Mosmeyer said.

At least one analyst believes Dell's success will be limited to the low-end market. Kerravala said he believes Dell won't ever be a "serious enterprise player" competing with higher-end switching products.

But Dell argues that the features on some of its forthcoming "managed" switches, which allow remote management, will attract larger companies. These switches are due in July. Several large businesses also use Dell's products in their branch offices, Mosmeyer said.

The price wars that Dell inflamed in the PC market led to margins so low that computer makers suffered across the board, but that isn't likely to happen in the switch market, analysts say.

"Traditional vendors have no interest in trying to match Dell's prices," said Kerravala, who believes customers will end up paying more if they want switches tailored to specific uses, or if they want more support and services with their gear.

"Cisco is really good at selling a vision," Kerravala said. "The lower prices are going to force other companies to offer total product packages...instead of individual products to differentiate themselves," he predicted.

Even if competitors manage to keep Dell out of certain niches, they are still likely to suffer. "Dell currently resells switches made by 3Com and Extreme Networks, as well as networking products including interface cards and routers from vendors such as Nortel and Lucent (news - web sites) (Technologies)," Lowy said. Those companies are likely to suffer as Dell starts making more switching products, and as more complex switches replace routers, the more traditional networking devices, Lowy added.

3Com said it has already expanded into selling more services and support with its products. The company also said it considers its use of sales channels a competitive strength. "We sell through a local reseller, so customers have a local contact to call up for support," said a company representative.

Cisco declined to comment, saying it does not discuss competition.



To: Voltaire who wrote (51617)5/17/2002 6:07:49 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
Stocks Rise; Nasdaq has Best Week in a Year

By Jed Seltzer
Friday May 17, 4:50 pm Eastern Time

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose on Friday as an upbeat outlook from the computer-chip sector and strong results from Dell Computer Corp. (NasdaqNM:DELL - News) drove the technology-loaded Nasdaq to its largest weekly jump in more than a year.



"Dell is a really important indicator, so it adds a little further strength to the feeling of economic rebound," said Gary Wedbush, head of trading at investment bank Wedbush Morgan. "The rise this week was pretty broad too, and it's specifically in industries that indicate that people are seeing a recovery, like semiconductors and retailing."

The Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) erased early losses and edged up 10.95 points, or 0.63 percent, to 1,741.39, according to the latest figures available, creating a week-long winning streak that lifted the index 8.8 percent.

Nasdaq's five straight sessions of increases was the best streak since last fall.

The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average (CBOT:^DJI - News) rose 63.87 points, or 0.62 percent, to 10,353.08, posting more than a 400-point jump for the week. It was a 4.2 percent gain, the best since September.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index (CBOE:^SPX - News) climbed 8.36 points, or 0.76 percent, to 1,106.59, and also recorded its largest weekly gain since late September.

Helping to shake off the early weakness were Dell's results, a fifth consecutive month of rising semiconductor equipment orders, and improving consumer sentiment data.

Dell shares edged up 10 cents to $27.95 after posting quarterly profits that topped Wall Street expectations and saying revenues and earnings would improve in the current quarter.

The University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer sentiment index rose to 96.0 from 93.0 in April. Support for the better mood came from improving economic data and relative calm in the Middle East. Forecasts were for a drop to 92.7.

Winners beat out losers, with 17 stocks rising for every 14 that fell on the New York Stock Exchange and 19 stocks climbing for every 16 that fell on Nasdaq. More than 1.25 billion shares changed hands on the Big Board and more than 1.6 billion on Nasdaq.

"I think we've lost that sense of urgency to be in the market," said Charles Payne, market analyst at research firm Wall Street Strategies. "But all year long, the knee-jerk reaction has been to think the worst and most times, sell off. You've got to look at this market and think it has held its own very well this week."

Losses in oil-related stocks weighed on the market after Russia, the world's second biggest oil exporter, said it would abandon a pact with the OPEC cartel to restrict exports intended to support the market. More supply can depress oil prices, hurting profits at oil firms.

Some attributed swings in market values on Friday to options expiration, when options and futures contracts end. On such days, there are large trades in index futures and the underlying stocks by hedge strategists, resulting in volatile markets.

Other analysts pointed to lingering investor uncertainty about the strength of an economic recovery and swift upturn in corporate earnings.

"There are two things that haven't happened and that's why there hasn't been a sustained rally," said Tim Heekin, head of trading for Thomas Weisel Partners. "We haven't seen two back-to-back quarters of improved earnings and we haven't seen a resurgence in capital spending. It'll be late summer before we have rallies that will last."

Shares of Autodesk Inc. (NasdaqNM:ADSK - News) fell nearly 8 percent, or $1.22, to $14.38, after the maker of design software posted profits that fell 37 percent from a year ago, slashed its earnings guidance and said its chief financial officer was leaving for an Internet start-up company.

Some chip makers gained after industry group Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International said North American makers of semiconductor equipment recorded an increase in orders for the fifth consecutive month, giving credence to hopes the semiconductor slump is over.

Among energy stocks, Noble Corp. (NYSE:NE - News) fell $1.22, or 3 percent, to $40.31. Rowan Co. Inc. (NYSE:RDC - News) slid 71 cents, or 3 percent, to $25.02.

Utility and energy stocks also fell as worries persisted that companies recorded phantom trades purely to inflate volumes. Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK - News) fell $1.18, or 3 percent, to $33.52 while Dynegy Inc. (NYSE:DYN - News) shed 65 cents, or 8.5 percent, to $7.

Support -- where buyers are expected to enter the market -- is at 1,680 for the Nasdaq, 10,150 for the Dow and 1,083 for the S&P. Resistance -- the point where sellers are likely to surface -- is at 1,780 for the Nasdaq, 10,400 for the Dow and 1,120 for the S&P, according to research firm Schaeffersresearch.com.



To: Voltaire who wrote (51617)5/20/2002 12:18:50 PM
From: Sully-  Respond to of 65232
 
Reuters Market News
Tyco shares up as confidence in CIT deal rises

BOSTON, May 20 (Reuters) - The shares of Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC - News) on Monday surged more than 6 percent as investors gain confidence in the conglomerate's plan to sell its finance arm in an initial public offering.

Tyco shares have been on the rise since last week when the Bermuda-based conglomerate said it expected to sell CIT Group by the end of June. Tyco plans to raise up to $7.15 billion from an IPO of CIT. It also is looking for a buyer for an outright sale.

"That's the big hurdle Tyco has to overcome to get people to believe in the stock again," said Rob Plaza, an analyst at Morningstar Inc.

The CIT offering would give Tyco breathing room in its drive to refinance its debt. Next February $3.25 billion comes due as investors worry about its debt load.

Tyco paid nearly $10 billion for CIT last year and many analysts expect Tyco to write off more $2 billion once CIT is sold.

"It would be the difference between what they paid and what they pull in," Plaza said.

Tyco shares moved up $1.39, or 6.39 percent, to $23.14 in afternoon trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock is up about 19 percent over the last three days of trading, but is off 61 percent this year.

biz.yahoo.com



To: Voltaire who wrote (51617)5/20/2002 11:40:02 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Templeton on CNBC: "nowhere near the end of US bear market"

interview with lovely little MariaB in Nassau with Sir John
he is now 89 years old, but looks only about 84
considers stocks as 100% overpriced
doesnt necessarily believe Dow will go to 5000
but thinks it will be going much lower from here

he recommends stripped US Bonds
(pays interest without risk to principal on varying rates)
if in stocks, then suggests net zero
with balanced longs and shorts

"2000 was the greatest financial insanity the world has ever seen"
he says the insanity has not completely been dealt with yet

smart guy, a Christian too, working charities fulltime

from me: try vitamin AU
despite "gold trap", it broke out higher today
but I dont think it is ready to go to 330-350 just yet
maybe later this summer, or late June
/ jim