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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (6123)	5/18/2002 8:22:53 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

I recently was asked if inflation could be bullish for the stockmarket, I'm working on my answer. Here's the first draft. Generally speaking inflation is not bullish for equities is the short answer. That is the conventional wisdom, and it's basically true. It can be bullish in terms of retaining purchasing power rather than keeping your money in cash or long dated-bonds, in a very inflationary environment, such as the 1970's. Argentina devalued their peso this past year. It had been pegged to the US dollar. It fell to about 3 pesos to a dollar and at one point had stabilized with a 50% decline against the USD. The Argentine stockmarket doubled in local currency terms because of the devaluation of the currency. so if you look at the argentine stockmarket average and do not consider the currency and inflation rates this past year, it doubled and was the best performing global stockmarket. On a Inflation and currency unadjusted basis this is the shorter version. I'm expecting to get a question back on this. John

To: John Pitera who wrote (6123)	5/20/2002 12:25:44 AM
From: HG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

<<So pick up some FAX on a dip and pick up a 9.35% yield finance.yahoo.com and a 20-25% currency appreciation kicker over the next year and change for a 30-35% total return vehicle. >> John, Do you see US$ dipping significantly during the next 12-18 months ? .68 would be very decent for A$ as it has been pounded for the last 5 years........ I'm looking at performance of US$ vs A$.....waiting for an opportune time to sell A$ for US$....I'm not in a hurry, but would appreciate your insight on emerging trends in currency markets.... TIA.

To: John Pitera who wrote (6123)	5/20/2002 5:53:56 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

So pick up some FAX on a dip and pick up a 9.35% yield HI John, Also FAP.TO for the Canucks and avoid the seeing the 15% hit on the dividend. I also think it has performed slightly better than FAX. We don't have a tax treaty with Cook Islands up here I was informed. Been holding for a while. Can't just bet on gold. regards Kastel

To: John Pitera who wrote (6123)	5/26/2002 11:44:12 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

GOLD - FAX - up to 4.71- Update for Chris from the Clown Free Zone -- Hi Chris, FAX's 200 DMA is way back down near 4.00 as you say. I mispoke about what the 4.68-4.70 resistance was. That 4.68 number was going to be approaching a 9% dividend yield for FAX. Since you have some yield buyers in FAX a few on the margin sell as you start to get down into yields with an 8 handle. But in my opinion, The Major trend is still up in FAX. For the good shorter term traders, they have an RSI and MACD momentum divergence and also you are getting 20% above the 200 DMA. So I can understand how some better trades may lighten up on their long position, looking to replace that stock at a lower cost basis on a correction back to the 50 DMA or even that 4.25 level. But The AUD is strong, Gold has some resistance @ this 320 to 324 level, but I think it's a big mistake to now believe that the Bigger Trend in Gold is up. The bigger trend in the AUD CAD, CHF etc is for them to strengthen. The USD is going to try to rally either this week or in June due to it's technical position and the seasonality. But as a trend trader, I'm dubious on anyone who comes up with the bright idea of picking a top in Gold,and or picking "the bottom" in the USD etc. and is looking to trade in size in these contra trend type positions. Lots of money is lost getting fancy on trying to trade countertrend moves. Much more is made patiently staying with the trend. Ask anyone here and they'll probably say the same thing. I see reasons for a smallish pullback in Gold but IF it happens it will just create better levels to buy. why not 360 for Gold and then 400 a while after that. JP

To: John Pitera who wrote (6123)	6/3/2002 2:22:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

In the Out on a Limb dept.... It's Now Time for a Rally in the US Dollar -- I know the Headline story in Monday's WSJ is the USD bear market. A USD bear Market is absolutely no news for us since we've been forecasting it all year. But Bear Markets come in stages and we are seeing numerous signs that a rally is upon us, or only days away. That's what our Weight of the Evidence is Indicating. If we do see this anticipated USD rally we should also see a concomitant rally in US Equities. thecapitalmarkets.com