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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: borb who wrote (3057)	5/17/2002 4:16:05 PM
From: Crossy	Respond to of 3902

Borb, if the Yen gets stronger, offshore production will be important. But I don't think the Yen will go much higher in the current environment. The recent US economic strength should ensure Yen/$ parity for some time. Europe is another matter. I think we will have a very weak Euro for some time. As a European, I try to invest in US$ and Yen Environments. Just 15% of my portfolio is connected to Europe... CROSSY

To: borb who wrote (3057)	5/21/2002 5:34:04 AM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Borb, in the US there have been some upradess on analog and "mixed signal" semis like NSM and FCS yesterday. This might have been the reason why my Japanese semis (active in the same segment) were doing so well today... Afte a period of consolidation they are up nicely again... New Japan Radio (6911.J) up 8% to 840 on almost 300k volume. New 52 week high. It seems there were estimates raised for next year. This stock is still trading at a very low valuation vs. its US and Asian based peers. Price to sales around 0.50. Compare this to a mean PSR of 3+ in the US. This is one of the reasons why I honestly think that NJR could attack its all time high of around 1600 in the time going forward... Asahi Kasei (3407.J) - diversified conglomerate with a big analog semi subsidiary AKM inched up almost 3% to close at 463 on average volume of around 5m. Most recently they did some restructuring, selling their low alcohol liquor business and buying in the hemodialysis equipment division of a former competitor. This strategic reorientation makes absolute sense IMHO and is one of the reasons why I like this company - more changes in the business portfolio were envisaged for the next 2 years. More a blue chip than NJR and definitely attractively valued at a Price/Sales Ratio of 0.55 Shimadzu also up 2.5%. This stock will zoom once aviation and defense gears up - this division is the nature of their cyclicality. Medical equipment offerings are world class. Further restructuring was announced last year. Profit expected (turnaround) for FY2003. all the best CROSSY

To: borb who wrote (3057)	5/26/2002 8:37:46 AM
From: Crossy	Respond to of 3902

News : Japan's GDP growing 7.8% - quite a blow to all naysayers - driven by EXPORTERS. For now this means my stance has been validated.. biz.yahoo.com Reuters Business Report Japan's Economy to Grow Again in Jan-March -Paper TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economy is expected to show its highest growth in two years in the first three months of this year, putting a stop to three quarters of contraction, a financial daily on Sunday quoted research agencies as saying. ADVERTISEMENT The survey of 17 private research agencies by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun business daily showed their estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in January to March averaged an annualized real increase of 7.9 percent. That would be the fastest quarter of growth in two years, building on robust exports and an improvement in stubbornly weak consumer spending. The figures will be released on June 7, but already economists are talking about Japan outstripping the U.S. growth rate of 5.8 percent for the first quarter of the year. A preliminary survey by Reuters this month showed projections are for GDP growth of even eight or nine percent in January-March on an annualized real term basis, driven by a big boost in exports to the United States and Asia. While the government of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi may be spared the humiliation of presiding over a record fourth straight quarter of contraction, economists see slim chance that a V-shaped recovery could be sustained. Japan has been disappointed before by big GDP numbers. In June 1999, a 7.9 percent annualized gain in GDP for the first quarter of the year led to a big rally by the yen, which hit exporters. Stock prices also soared, but only briefly. Economists say the risk of replay was strong, given that many of the recent bright signs in the economy stem from a pickup in exports based on a global upturn and a weak yen. The Bank of Japan followed the government last week by upgrading its view of the economy for a third straight month as a key barometer of service industries -- from sushi restaurants to auto repair shops -- rose for the first time in four months. The upbeat news suggests an export-driven flurry of first-quarter manufacturing activity was spreading to other sectors, taking pressure off the government to stimulate growth as Japan pulls out of its longest downturn in 50 years. The Nihon Keizai survey of research firms showed they estimated an average 7.0 percent jump in exports for the quarter, with Merrill Lynch Japan the most optimistic, predicting a 10.3 percent surge. Due to a recovery in the world economy, net export demand is estimated to contribute 0.7 percentage point to economic growth, it said. The average estimate for consumer spending was 1.9 percent, with Nomura Research Institute forecasting the highest increase, at 2.8 percent. However, the agencies said the government's method of calculating the statistics inflates the GDP figures, the newspaper said. For example, in estimating consumer spending, the government surveys expenditures by about 9,000 households, whereas there are more than 40 million families in Japan, the newspaper said. In tracking the spending of consumers who live alone, only 750 are sampled. The restricted sampling inflates the GDP figure, it quoted Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute as saying. The Cabinet Office has already begun reviewing the way it compiles preliminary GDP data and intends to begin using a new method beginning with data for April-June, the newspaper said. The new method will shift the weight in the calculation from data on consumers to suppliers, such as commercial sales statistics.