Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (51634)	5/17/2002 7:03:15 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

NewVision, >>Even if they go into money market funds or savings accounts, they lose value from currency devaluation. Why don't you think investors will go into funds like TGG, FAX and FCO as these type of funds hold foreign government debt. IMO, foreign countries like Australia and Canada government debt is as safe as US government debt and the currencies will do well against the US dollar. Joan

To: t2 who wrote (51634)	5/17/2002 8:31:19 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

where do you get "stocks are real assets" when Enron failed, which real assets offered salvage value? its pipelines offered investors 30 cents/share in salvage maybe check the definition real asset is often referring to hard assets, something besides intellectual property, patents, trademarks, such as bigtime book value I agree with part of what you say though when the dollar comes tumbling down more, money will go into the largest of caps, the Nifty Fifty, the S&P spiders I think 12% is a lot for foreign owned stocks you might think it small compared to the mindboggling frightening scarey 44% in TBonds take every 8th house on your street every 8th apartment you see in complexes every 8th car that passes by that is one hell of a lot of people who will see magnified losses as the foreign dollar drops stocks generally have NEVER been a safe haven, NEVER bonds are the only safe haven we have in our securities markets the currency problems will likely, as Pimco Gross says, push bondholders into shorter maturities but even they will take damage I think multinational stocks will be the only safe stocks to be, but they wont be all that safe because most have absurd PE ratios, esp techs buybacks will disappear, since few have ANY spare cash big cap tech are the best companies in the world? are you serious? have you been dipping into the sherry? they have the best accounting shenanigans they have the most ridiculous valuations they have very little earnings at all the big missing piece you seem to overlook is the effect of higher interest rates in two key areas 1. brings high valuations under scrutiny, and brings down all stocks 2. kills earnings due to widespread interest rate swaps, from longterm to shorterm if the dollar comes down another 10%, stocks will come down 20-25% that is my take the big red herring here is energy costs if any economic recovery occurs, crude oil will continue its upward path I believe crude oil will be over $30/bbl in a few months if the dollar drops, we will likely see a response by Arab OPEC nations I predict they will soon demand GOLD for OIL this will unhinge the US financial markets I see it coming before the end of this year !!! and what about more 3SIGMA events? Islamic attacks? high profile bankruptcies? more is coming like night follows day you also underestimate the power of the derivative markets in keeping rates low it is tied to the gold suppression models we will see though, wont we? / jim