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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve susko who wrote (51642)	5/21/2002 5:06:35 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

on real estate, the final battle will be fought I think the Federal Reserve will opt for reflation that means they will fight to once more produce inflation that is the only way out of their current deflation all those years of fighting inflation in the late 1990's when none existed, while the economies of the world were stalling... (after Asian Meltdown) have wrought destruction in the form of deflation I think GreenStorm will allow inflation to rage but he wont know how much he will encourage he is late in policy making all thru his career too much tightening in 1999-2000 too much easing in 2001-02 but now, we risk worldwide calamity if deflation takes hold we risk a worldwide redux of Japan if he is not careful he must reflate, re-inflate, call it what you want so I think real estate will forestall its decline until 2003 sometime when the next recession grips the nation again but interest rates will be rising by then because of the sold USTBonds, double dollar, weak dollar the dollar will weaken far far more than anyone expects but when the deep seemingly unending liquidation recession happens, jobs will be lost, unemployment will reach something like 8-9% (maybe higher), and interest rates will rise across the board (from liquidation effect despite recession) can you say 1929 ??? so real estate will hang on until middle 2003 then come down for two years by about 20-30% minimum gonna be frightful but then again, all liquidations are / jim