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Politics : WAR on Terror. Will it engulf the Entire Middle East? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (4437)	5/17/2002 8:22:39 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 32591

Hamas Vying To Lead Palestinians 17 May 2002 Summary An alleged offer by Palestinian militant group Hamas to stop suicide bombings in Israeli territory may have been part of a carefully planned leak designed to alert the Israeli government that the group is willing to negotiate. Ultimately Hamas may be trying to position itself as a workable replacement for Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority. Analysis An unidentified Hamas official told the Saudi government earlier this week that the radical Palestinian group was willing to halt suicide bombings on Israeli territory, according to Palestinian sources cited by Agence France-Presse May 16. The announcement came in response to requests by the Saudis -- who are trying to bolster their influence in the Middle East and with the United States -- that both Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad curb their activities. Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin denied the announcement the next day. But the incident has all the characteristics of an intentional leak, allowing Hamas to show that it is willing to negotiate with the Israelis. Although the group's overall ideology is focused on the destruction of the Israeli state, this is a long-term goal. There is no reason that the two sides can't work together to achieve mutual objectives in the short term, such as sidelining Yasser Arafat and the Palestinian Authority. In doing so, Hamas may assume the leadership of the Palestinian cause. Though they are diametrically opposed to each other, Hamas and the government of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon share a few common interests. Hamas regards Arafat and his cronies as corrupt collaborators, willing to compromise the Palestinian cause for their own gain. The Sharon government sees Arafat as a wolf in sheep's clothing, presenting himself to the world as an embattled peacemaker while endorsing attacks on Israel behind the scenes. But Sharon's main problem with Arafat is that he is incapable of controlling his people. The failed Camp David talks in 2000 ignited the extreme groups among both the Israelis and the Palestinians. Moderates can no longer run peace negotiations because they are constantly being outflanked. Arafat cannot control the extremists and thus cannot be depended upon. Sharon sees Hamas as a wolf as well, but at least it makes no other pretense and can offer a coherent, consistent position from the Palestinian side. And rather than relying on exploding suicide bombers, Hamas is looking to a more long-term strategy of exploiting the exploding Palestinian population, which is expected to eclipse that of Israel in a few decades. As such, they are a lesser threat than Arafat in the short-term. At present, Hamas is licking its chops, waiting for the PA to collapse. Arafat has a tough choice. On one hand, he can push ahead with reforms advocated by both the White House and many Palestinian politicians -- and which would basically chip away at his own power base and force him to devolve power to a number of squabbling subordinates. Or more likely, Arafat will stall and hedge while militant groups like Tanzim and the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades continue their attacks. Overall, the PA will be unwilling or unable to present a coherent, united front. It has been boxed into a corner, given an ultimatum to make reforms it cannot make. Sharon is waiting to abandon the PA as a negotiating partner, but needs the Palestinians to find a new representative voice. The Bush administration is sick of the PA's recalcitrance as well, and may be willing to deal with Hamas if the Saudis will act as a sponsor for them. Taken together, the situation is tailor-made for Hamas to step up to the big time. In many regards, Hamas is a natural alternative to the PA. The group has the military muscle to pressure the Israelis and to defend its turf from rival Palestinian groups. And Hamas has a broad political constituency, especially among the young, due to the combination of its fundamentalist religious message and social welfare programs. Hamas' social programs -- such as establishing clinics and schools -- are an effective alternative to the PA's own social infrastructure, which was crumbling from corruption and mismanagement even before much of it was destroyed by the Israeli military. What's more, the recent negotiations between the Saudi government and Hamas lend the militant group an extra shot of international legitimacy. Saudi "sponsorship" of Hamas is in its embryonic stages, but should the relationship continue to develop, it would give Hamas another conduit to the outside world and a seat at high-level negotiations usually reserved for representatives of nation-states. Of course, such an arrangement would come at a price, as Hamas would be somewhat beholden to the Saudi government. Right now, Hamas is positioning itself in the hope that the PA continues on its downward spiral. Part of that positioning involves showing the Sharon government that it is not a single-minded fundamentalist party but is willing to act like a conventional political organization. stratfor.com