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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (142353)5/18/2002 9:56:56 AM
From: re3  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
WH, there are heaps of problems now...perhaps personal debt is 'not out of historic bounds', however, there is (imo) a housing bubble and many a newbie to the market could get burned, particularly if interest rates rise. you have a massive current account deficit, and you can pick up an issue of the Economist, and note that no other major country in the list in the back of the mag runs such a huge deficit...and have you noticed (woo-hoo) that the canuck loonie is starting to strengthen against your greenback ?
I also think that some that may have been in debt were bailed out by rising equity prices (i.e. lets sell the mutual fund that doubled and pay off the condo type of a situation). Of course, you'll tell me that equity prices are bound to rise in leaps and bounds again just like the 90's, but, with the heavy p/e ratios, (if there are any e's at all), the growing distrust of wall street, the 'name brand' bankruptcies starting to roll in, i think we are looking at a time when PRICE/EARNINGS ratios retreat back to SINGLE DIGITS...after all, RISK is more than a board game and people will want to be compensated for it...

when i first started following the market, it seemed that newbies here in Canada would get involved this way :

1) they'd get a hot tip on a penny stock (usually mining)
2) they'd lose their $ or most of it
3) they'd think the game is manipulated and quit

now, Ma and Pa Kettle are losing money on the PHONE COMPANY...you think Ma and Pa Kettle are gonna hang around or quit in disgust ?

remember the old expression, sell to WHOM ?



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (142353)5/18/2002 10:13:33 AM
From: H James Morris  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Hey Bill, my ac in yhoo is 14ps. What's yours these days?
>>Dear Terry Semel:
On behalf of all enthusiastic Yahoo users, I would like to let you know that we're really worried about Yahoo.

Like millions of people, I use my.yahoo.com as the default home page in my browser. It's a great page: Every time it pops up it shows me my stocks, customized news, and local movie times, and I can edit it easily to reveal other cool stuff. I also use many other Yahoo features, including search, mail, finance, and weather, each of which conveniently has its own address (like weather.yahoo.com). No, I don't use all Yahoo features. And no, I have never paid Yahoo a dime for all that service.

This helps explain why I like Yahoo so much. I also like the company's style, including those funny, offbeat ads it used to run when dot-coms bought television advertising. I like the whole story about how the company got started (although I am very jealous of the venture capitalists who funded the company). Most of all, I like the fact that Yahoo paid a lot of attention to using technology to deliver absolutely the best service possible on the Internet. Yahoo was always the site designed to bring pages up and respond to user requests as fast as possible.

But Netscape and Webvan were likable companies too. Based on my experience over the past six months, I am worried that Yahoo may have a similar fate in store. As Yahoo looks for new ways to grow, it is in danger of losing its core value as a service. Here's evidence:

Personal home page: My home page now opens more slowly than before, sometimes taking 30 seconds to serve up all the data that used to take less than ten seconds. This is such a drastic change, and such an annoyance at the beginning of my workday, that I am now actively looking for an alternative to My Yahoo. If I abandon My Yahoo, I'll also abandon Yahoo Finance, which I only use because it's conveniently linked to my home page.

Search: I already turn to Google for most searches. Yahoo uses Google technology, but only on its own database of Web pages, which were discovered and cataloged differently than Google's. So Google searches are better and seem faster.

E-mail: Any e-mail sent to my FORTUNE e-mail account is forwarded to my Yahoo Mail account. And in the past month or so, Yahoo Mail has become dysfunctional. When I forward reader messages to FORTUNE's letters editor now, I often get the following response after sending along just four or five messages: "There was a problem accessing your mailbox. This is most likely a temporary problem that should resolve itself within ten minutes. We apologize for the inconvenience. Thank you." In other words, I can't process all my e-mail in this session but instead have to log off, wait, and log back on--repeatedly. This has tripled the time it takes to process my messages. Rumor has it that you are planning a paid e-mail service. I suspect that you are leaving your free e-mail service as it is (i.e., broken) while you design a better one that you will charge for. Needless to say, I am looking for a new e-mail provider.

Marketing: We users recognize that Yahoo needs to have a working business model that allows it to grow and prosper. In fact, most of us have such loyalty that we'd probably pay for classy, useful premium services from Yahoo, especially now that it's harder and harder to find free alternatives on the Web. But Yahoo hasn't been treating users with class recently. There was that widely reported example when you reset users' preferences without asking permission. Here's the notice I got from you: "We have reset your marketing preferences and, unless you decide to change these preferences, you may begin receiving marketing messages from Yahoo! about ways to enhance your Yahoo! experience, including special offers and new features." But I had specifically asked not to get such messages! Furthermore, Yahoo has been launching pop-up browser windows, asking for marketing information on log-in screens, increasing the size of ads on free-content pages, and doing other things that sully my experience, all to try to increase revenue from its free services.

Increasing revenue is a fine goal, especially when revenue has been essentially flat, around $180 million a quarter for five quarters. But as our experience has deteriorated, we users have watched a parade of new executives arrive, armed with media backgrounds like yours. The problem is that this is not Warner Bros., Mr. Semel. We have been loyal to perhaps the best Internet company around. And now Yahoo seems to be run by people who don't understand the technology culture that made it such a great value.

fortune.com



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (142353)5/18/2002 10:24:30 AM
From: Victor Lazlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
<<Personal debt is not out of the historic bounds. >>

The ratio of consumer debt to assets is at historically high levels.

In addition to the bleak report on bankruptcies, lots of people have liquidated their home equity to maintain their lifestyes, so if real estate values dip, there could be some serious problems.