To: 16yearcycle who wrote (11619 ) 5/18/2002 12:21:03 PM From: techanalyst1 Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57684 Oh, sorry. I was considering buying brcd and was wondering what was making qlgc move up like that given it's valuation....... so I happened to know you were off base on it. Charts don't look anything alike.... qlgc is just in a range and brcd sure looks weak..... so I figure there must be some difference in the technology involved to make that happen (like chkp vs symc.... kinda both in security but different markets and different products). On the drugs.... I was short a couple last year and recently covered. I had been looking at the charts wondering why they were in these big ranges for so long and so I got to checking them out. Now if a girl like me can figure out that they have drugs coming off patent in general with not much in the pipeline in the near future, high r/d costs, the government trying to cut costs on medicare/medicaid every which way they can, the hospitals and insurance companies gaining power through consolidation (pricing power), drugs moving to OTC status, it seemed odd to me that analysts were saying to buy, buy, buy, buy and the stocks weren't breaking to the upside for so long. It was a case where I felt they either weren't doing their homework or they were afraid to point out the risks. They were just "safe" money but it didn't seem all that safe to me considering where they were valued over a year ago. Granted......... I do have some experience in the health care industry, but not that close to a pharmaceutical background. How could I know that they'd blow up, when analysts didn't? They aren't worth what they're paid. Haven't looked at the valuations in a while. I can say though that markets tend to swing too far and it can last a while. Value stocks went nowhere for quite some time because no one wanted them when the techs were screaming. Now it's money moving to the small caps. How fast can they fall if a fund were to decide to suddenly sell a small float, small trading volume stock? Think how Janus has been relentless in selling the big caps and I think we get the picture. Eventually, we'll see a more even market, but who knows when that happens? I think part of our problem is that analysts have lost all credibility whatsoever and no one trusts earnings estimates and therefore valuing a company is hard to do. It would be one thing if we'd only had a sector that imploded, but we've seen them all implode (except retail.... kinda) for one reason or another. Until we see that stop, we'll never know what kind of earnings we see going forward or how stable they are. Course........ stocks will likely be far off their bottoms by then. TA