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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (11622)	5/19/2002 11:56:15 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

National Wholesale Liquidators in a sweet spot apparently. It's Dollar General and Dollar Tree type stores on a bigger scale I imagine. washingtonpost.com

To: stockman_scott who wrote (11622)	5/19/2002 12:39:28 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Interesting piece. That is a colorful post mortem. The real message there to me is that he can't find anything ahead of the curve to write about. I don't know his beat. Let's hope he's at least interested! We have been through a time of unprecedented investment and we're living through the shock wave. To me it boils down to what pieces of this explosion have material positive economic benefit. If I (ever an optimist) were writing for Reuters I'd be feeding my editor material on the new technologies that came from this period of unprecedented [over] investment that remain truly impactful on the economy in a positive way; that pay their way today, and hence remain the solutions and applications of compelling and real benefit, worthy of investment in May, 2002. There are plenty of subjects besides another cycle on Sand Hill Road. It boils down to ROI. If the ROI is there, the dollars will flow, and there are plenty of subjects that fit the bill. There were too many bankers chasing too many deals. As the Sonus piece points out the ROI for telecom providers shrunk steeply every year after 1996. The principle of marginal return combined with too much debt hit us in the gut. But from this period we got a whole new breed of technologies that are spot-on for providing new ROI benefits for service providers and enterprises going forward.

To: stockman_scott who wrote (11622)	5/19/2002 1:39:27 PM
From: ChrisJP	Respond to of 57684

It breaks my heart to hear that these investment banking whores whose only purpose in life is to be middlemen, adding almost no value to the economy, are probably only making $300,000 per year now instead of several million dollars per year. How much did people LOSE from all the IPOs they made a bundle off of ? Chris

To: stockman_scott who wrote (11622)	5/19/2002 2:19:52 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 57684

Attendance at the 30th annual JP Morgan H&Q technology conference plummeted 23 percent from its peak last year to 3,260 people, the lowest figure since 1994 -- before the world discovered the Internet. "This is some of the worst sentiment I've ever seen," said Gary Nackerson of Firelake Research. "In a lot of ways, it's even worse than last September." Imo sentiment is worse than 94, which was a very bad year stock market wise- nonetheless there were still strong tech companies then, fore and cisco for two. Now we have nothing. This is more like 91 timeframe after the gulf war when everything crashed, imo. Both of these periods were great time to deploy new $$ into the mkts though. Investment banks advised on just 81 technology deals worth about $7.8 billion in first quarter 2002 compared with 146 deals worth about $94.7 billion in first quarter 1999, according to market research firm Thomson Financial. I wonder how many deals we had in 91 or 94. Probably right around 7 billion is my guess. And all we had then was LANs, PCs and ciient/server. L