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To: Earlie who wrote (166636)	5/18/2002 8:37:29 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie all your statements are correct, but you have ignored the fact that unemployment is still relative low to Europe, and those paying their mortgages and working got a pay hike aside from tax rebates by paying less mortgage and less interest on their credit cards, which gives them more free money. Also I stated that NATURE will take care of the slow recovery as things tend to wear away. It is true that the financial activity is a far cry from Y2K bet then again we were at the top of a bubble. With inventories so low we will get a sluggish recovery and investment cycle IMHO. The only thing that could derail those assumption are (1) a to rapid depreciation of the USD (2) high energy prices. Further I may add ........... that IMHO a successful war on IRAQ and the destruction of the Saudi Regime would add a tremendous positive stimulus to the US and world economies ............. my theory sounds strange as wars are destructive but in this specific case it will be highly constructive as the oil rich arab state are squandering billions and billions of oil revenues for terrorist organization, spreading Islamic doctrine and propaganda similar to the now defunct communist regime of Russia, spending on personal consumption with a negative and lasting economic effect (like building palaces for themselves, extravagant mosques, expensive cars, gadgets etc.) Those squandered billions from oil revenues are like an additional tax that will be removed after toppling those regimes. As a result energy will slide to a natural balance equivalent to $16 to $20 per barrel which will give a tremendous economic boost to world economies